After the holidays, VN-Index is still in a high zone, but the increase mainly focuses on some large-cap stocks, while liquidity has not really improved. The story of FTSE Russell upgrading, the developments of foreign capital flows and the general level of interest rates are considered important factors shaping market developments in the coming time.
Kafi Securities Company's analysis team believes that after a fairly rapid increase, cash flow is tending to rotate between stock groups, so the index may experience fluctuations but does not change the general trend.
The area of 1,860-1,880 points is currently a near resistance. If cash flow continues to circulate well and liquidity improves, VN-Index may head up to the area of 1,900 points. In the opposite direction, the area of 1,800-1,820 points is still a noteworthy support area. As long as this area is maintained, adjustment phases still tend to absorb supply and restructure cash flow rather than reverse the trend.
With the story of FTSE Russell officially upgrading Vietnam from September 21, investors still assess it as a positive supporting factor, although part of the expectation has been reflected in the price. September 21 should be seen as the starting point of the process of Vietnam being included in the Secondary Emerging group, instead of a milestone marking the end of the upgrade story. FTSE deploys disbursement in many stages, in which the period in early September only applies 10% of the proportion, the rest is gradually added in 2027. Therefore, passive capital flows will also enter step by step instead of concentrating entirely around a trading session.
In the context of unclearly improved liquidity, the current view is leaning towards continuing to hold better positions rather than sharply reducing proportions. Unclearly increased liquidity does not mean that cash flow has withdrawn from the market; instead, cash flow is still circulating between stock groups and creating a greater degree of differentiation. Stocks that have increased sharply may experience profit-taking pressure, while cash flow shifts to groups with better price bases or profit prospects that have not fully reflected in the price.
The market may still experience short-term profit-taking after September 21 when a part of investors bought in advance based on upgrade expectations. However, if foreign capital flows begin to improve along with corporate profit growth, the story of upgrades may still continue to support the valuation level and cash flow in the following months.
The market outlook in the coming time is seen by experts as significantly dependent on interest rate developments. The current interest rate level is still relatively high and the possibility of going sideways in September makes the room for strong cash flow into the market not really clear. However, if interest rates do not show further significant upward pressure, this is still a favorable condition for investor sentiment to remain stable.
In the context of fast cash flow circulation, the disbursement strategy therefore needs to be selective. Investors can classify portfolios, using leading groups as core portfolios with higher proportions, while potential groups are allocated lower proportions to find superior returns.
Disbursement should be carried out in installments during adjustments to help control risks, especially for stocks that have significantly reflected upgrading expectations. The liquidity factor of stocks also needs to be put first, especially for investors with large capital scale.
In addition, investors should prioritize stocks that maintain the price base, continuously raise to the bottom and have a clear fundamental story, then increase the proportion when cash flow is confirmed by the improvement of liquidity and the ability to overcome resistance zones.
Instead of chasing the short-term cycle of cash flow, the ability to identify industries that have both a profit base, a story of support, liquidity and sufficiently sustainable price strength will be decisive factors for investors to find the next leading stock class.
