Hanoi real estate market explodes supply, but prices are expensive
On March 28, the REFI FORUM event "Finance & Real Estate Investment Forum 2026" was held in Hanoi, attracting more than 200 investors nationwide.
Sharing at the event, Mr. Phan Le Thanh Long - CEO of AFA Group, Founding Chairman of the Vietnam Financial Advisory Community (VWA) said that Hanoi's real estate market has shifted to the "Hypersupply" phase. This is the time when market power gradually shifts to buyers' hands (Buyer's Market).
Specifically, real estate buyers in this period may enjoy incentives because investors are racing for deep discounts. Buyers have high negotiating power, great incentives in terms of price, payment progress and unprecedented policies to stimulate demand.
However, the paradox lies in the fact that buyers have almost no choice suitable for their budget when affordable apartment products are completely absent. House purchase decisions are also slowed down to wait for the new Planning of Hanoi Capital. Very high housing loan interest rates make people more cautious when borrowing.
Agreeing with this view, sharing at the event, Ms. Duong Thuy Dung - Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam said that data from CBRE shows a harsh reality: in Hanoi today, there are almost no new projects with prices below 70 million VND/m2.
Even in satellite areas like Hung Yen, the price level has also been anchored at a high level, with only 1 project priced at 55 million VND/m2. This mismatch stems from project developers focusing too much on the high-end segment, causing inventory to increase sharply but not meeting the actual housing needs of the majority of people.
Paradox of house prices and capital shift strategy
A surprising point in the 2026 strategic report is that house prices in developing areas of Ho Chi Minh City are currently "softer" than in Hanoi.
Ms. Thuy Dung shared that previously the average apartment price of Ho Chi Minh City before merging provinces and cities was on average at 91 million VND/m2. However, after the merger, data on the average apartment price of Ho Chi Minh City recorded at the end of 2025, averaging only about 62 million VND/m2.
Mr. Long's report shows that apartment rental rates in Hanoi have seriously decreased, to only 2.47% at the beginning of 2026. This shows that the value of apartments in the Capital is increasing too far compared to the actual cash flow exploitation capacity.
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung believes that this is the time for investors to change their thinking, not necessarily focusing on the central area of Hanoi.
Instead, looking for opportunities in low-priced areas such as Binh Duong, District 9 or Hoc Mon with prices from 45-50 million VND/m2 will bring better growth potential. In particular, product lines optimizing area (about 40m2) with a total value of 2 to 3 billion VND are "windows" for new investors entering the market, thanks to high liquidity and good handover quality from reputable investors.
In fact, when investing in real estate, financial experts believe that priority should be given to real estate segments that generate cash flow.
