For many years, the milestone of 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in temperature compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) under the 2015 Paris Agreement has been considered a relative "safe threshold" for the world to avoid climate disasters. However, according to the latest report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the goal of limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius will not be achieved.
UNEP's report points out that, in theory, the world can still reverse the heating situation after exceeding the threshold, but the level of uncertainty is extremely high. Even in the most optimistic scenario, global temperatures are still likely to peak at 1.8 degrees Celsius before they can return to the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold by the end of the century. To clarify the causes of this situation, reporters had an interview with Dr. Truong Ba Kien - Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science.
Mr. Dr. Truong Ba Kien, how do you assess the fact that the world cannot achieve the goal of curbing the global average temperature increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius?
- First of all, it is necessary to understand that the figure of 1.5 degrees Celsius is the long-term average trend of global surface atmospheric temperature compared to the pre-industrial period, not the weather diễn biến of a single month or year.
Since the pre-industrial period, the world has emitted a huge amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere - not only CO2 but also Methane (CH4), N2O... These gases take a very long time to decompose/transform into a state or "escape the atmosphere". Even when the world strives to cut emissions to Net Zero, the ocean surface and ice blocks at both poles have also absorbed too much heat energy and it is very difficult to reverse.
When the temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, the impacts of climate change will increase rapidly. The frequency and intensity of intense heat waves, severe droughts, unusual rains and floods, and fierce storms will become increasingly fierce and unpredictable.
So for a country like Vietnam, what specific consequences will occur, sir?
- Vietnam is one of the countries directly and heavily affected. According to the National Climate Change Scenario developed by the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science, by the end of this century, the number of hot days (above 35 degrees Celsius) in Vietnam may double. Due to the heat island effect, major cities will turn into "boilers". In the future, Hanoi may suffer up to 70-80 hot days/year, while Ho Chi Minh City may witness an unprecedented long series of hot days.
Not only is there hot sun, the law of atmospheric physics indicates that as the temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius, the water vapor retention capacity of the air will increase by about 7%. The large amount of water vapor accumulated makes the convection process develop strongly, which can cause extreme rain with high intensity, causing widespread flooding in urban areas and serious landslides in mountainous areas.
Regarding storm morphology, although the total number of storms appearing in the East Sea may not fluctuate much, the rate of strong storms and super typhoons has increased significantly. The change in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature is making the storm's trajectory extremely complex, abnormal and tending to shift in space.
In the Mekong Delta, the irreversible consequences of ice thawing are accelerating the sea level rise process. Combined with local drought and changes in tidal laws, saltwater intrusion is increasingly deeply ingrained in the fields, directly threatening domestic water sources and national food security.
So what do we need to do in the face of increasingly fierce climate challenges, sir?
- Faced with the reality that climate change is no longer a danger but has become a daily reality, Vietnam is forced to shift its thinking from passive resignation to proactive risk management.
The biggest bright spot today is that we are strongly shifting to the "Impact-Based Forecasting" method. Instead of simply providing purely technical parameters in traditional news reports (such as 100mm rain or level 10 storms), the meteorological and hydrological sector is focusing on answering the question: "What impact will that weather phenomenon cause, where and to whom?".
When the bulletin clearly states which specific streets will be locally flooded by an extreme rainstorm, the risk of landslides in which residential areas, or how a heat wave will increase the risk of power grid overload and stroke... the government and people can soon activate preventive scenarios and timely evacuation to minimize damage.
In addition, solutions and adaptation plans must be directly integrated into socio-economic development planning, urban planning and technical infrastructure. Cities need to reduce concretization, increase the area of green trees and water surface to "cool down". The agricultural sector, especially in the Mekong Delta, must proactively change the crop structure and crops to adapt to salinity - sweetness instead of forcing to resist.
Protecting forests, restoring natural ecosystems and promoting green energy transitions, reducing greenhouse gas emissions... not only helps Vietnam fulfill international commitments, but is also the most sustainable "shield" to protect the community from the fierce fluctuations of nature.
Thank you, sir!
