The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has issued a 3-month climate forecast (from now until July 2026) based on climate development analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science, currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions show that ENSO is in a neutral state. ENSO is forecast to tend to transition to El Nino state from June-July 2026, with a very high probability.
The start time of the summer monsoon and activity intensity is at a level equivalent to the multi-year average (the multi-year average summer monsoon starts around the 2nd week of May).
Regarding the temperature trend, the temperature in the next 3 months is likely to be higher than the multi-year average in most areas of the country.
From May to July, hot weather is likely to continue to appear widely in the Northern and Central regions, and the intensity may be more intense than the multi-year average. For the Central Highlands and Southern regions, hot weather is likely to last until May-June" - Mr. Kien said.
According to Mr. Kien, regarding drought conditions, from May to July, the possibility of drought will only appear locally in the Central region, but not seriously. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of increasing drought in the 2026-2027 dry season.
Regarding the rain trend in the next 3 months, total rainfall is likely to be close to the multi-year average value in the same period in most areas of the country.
Regarding the trend of tropical cyclone activity, according to the Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, the 2026 storm season is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average. Usually, the storm season in the East Sea is calculated from about June to November, sometimes lasting until December depending on the source of data and statistics.
From May to July 2026, the number of tropical cyclones operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is likely to be approximately the multi-year average (about 3-4 cyclones in the East Sea and 1-2 cyclones affecting Vietnam).
The number of storms and low pressures in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2026 is likely to be lower to approximately the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data, there are about 12-13 storms in the East Sea, of which 6-7 storms affect Vietnam" - Mr. Kien assessed.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien especially emphasized that in typical El Nino years, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea may decrease, but there is a potential risk of stronger storms and more complex trajectories. Therefore, even if the number decreases, the risks related to this year's storm season are still very high.
