Winter 2023 is recorded as a warm winter with temperatures in the Northern region 1 - 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years, in some places 2 degrees Celsius higher. In 2024, under the impact of La Nina, winter developments are forecasted to change compared to last year.
Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of Climate Forecasting Division, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has analyzed the trends of this year's winter.
Sir, it is forecasted that from October, ENSO will tend to shift to La Nina phenomenon. So when is the forecast for La Nina to start affecting Vietnam's weather, sir?
- Currently, ENSO is in a neutral state, the sea surface temperature deviation is leaning towards the cold phase. It is forecasted that from October to December 2024, ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60 - 70% and the possibility of weak intensity.
However, it should be noted that La Nina is a large-scale phenomenon that affects global weather, so even when the sea surface temperature has cooled in the central Pacific, its impact on our country will be delayed by 2-3 months.
With La Nina taking effect, how is this year's winter weather forecast to be different from last winter and recent years, sir?
- It is forecasted that this winter will have common temperatures slightly lower than or close to the average of many years.
In our opinion, the temperature difference will only fluctuate within 0.5 degrees Celsius. It is likely that winter 2024 will have lower temperatures than winter 2023.
Especially after warm winters in the northern provinces, this year is expected to be colder than the winters of the past 3 years.
Sir, what is the nature of this year's winter like, especially under the influence of La Nina, will the cold and chilly weather be accompanied by a lot of rain?
- Total rainfall in November 2024 is generally 10 - 20mm higher than the average of many years; in mountainous areas, it is 5 - 10mm lower than the average of many years.
In December 2024, total rainfall in the Northern region will generally be from 20 - 40mm (5 - 10mm lower). From January to February 2025, total rainfall will generally be from 20 - 50mm (approximately compared to the average of many years in the same period). In March 2025, total rainfall will generally be 50 - 80mm (5 - 10mm higher than the average of many years).
This year's winter weather is forecast to be cold and dry in the first half of the season and cold and humid in the latter half of the season (from around the end of February 2025 and March 2025, there is a possibility of light rain and drizzle). This is also consistent with the climate law.
Thank you very much!
