In recent days, social networks have been spreading information "Usuffering risk of major storms in Quang Ninh: Early warning and call for preparation".
This article shares the content: "A whirlwind sound wave observed by Vashna Kim Thien Sri is approaching from the Southeast, likely causing extreme weather conditions, expected to make landfall in Quang Ninh from May 4 to 5, 2025 or sooner... If not significantly weakened, the storm can reach level 12 winds, equivalent to the orange warning level - level 3 in the Vietnamese natural disaster system".
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting - answered reporters about this information.
Sir, is there any scientific basis for the information being spread about the storm that could reach level 12 winds and affect Quang Ninh in early May?
- Based on general knowledge of climate laws, necessary conditions for strong storm formation, historical statistics, and importantly, current long-term monitoring and forecast data from Vietnamese and international meteorological agencies (US, Japan, China, Australia, European Meteorological Agency), information about a strong storm (level 12) appearing and directly affecting Quang Ninh in early May 2025 is unfounded scientifically.
According to monitoring data over the past 30 years, there have never been strong storms that have made landfall or directly affected Quang Ninh in early May 2025.
Regarding the storm season in the East Sea and Northwest Pacific, the storm is most active from around June to November. Strong storms, especially those that are likely to directly affect the Northern region such as Quang Ninh, are typically concentrated in the middle and late months of the storm season (from July to October).
The conditions for a tropical cyclone to develop and reach strong storm intensity (such as level 12) require a combination of many factors that were not available in early May 2025, so it is not possible to form a strong storm.
The weather is always uncertain, not excluding the possibility of other dangerous weather patterns appearing in May 2025 (such as thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind and local heavy rain). As for the scenario of a strong storm of level 12 affecting Quang Ninh in early May 2025 as rumored, it is unlikely to appear.
ENSO has a major impact on forecasting storm trends. What state is ENSO in, sir?
- Regarding the 2025 natural disaster season; The Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting assessed that the ENSO phenomenon is in neutral conditions; from May to July 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 90%.
Sir, with such ENSO developments, how is the forecast for storms in the coming time in the East Sea and how will it affect our mainland?
- Based on the current monitoring and forecast data, the stormy season in 2025, the number of tropical storms and depressions in the South China Sea and affecting the mainland is likely to be equivalent to the average of many years of the same period (about 11 - 13 tropical storms/depressions in the East Sea and about 4-5 attacks affecting the mainland). The possibility of storms will focus more than the second half of the storm season.
Sincerely thank you!
