Gas prices are expected to rise in all major global markets in 2025, followed by a decline in 2026 and 2027, experts surveyed by TASS predicted.
“Spot prices will rise across most major markets in 2025, with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the year due to a low base from early 2024 when prices fell sharply in late winter and early spring,” said Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance. He forecasts average gas prices to rise 10% year-on-year in 2025, while the JKM Asia index will rise 13%.
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman forecasts a moderate increase in average gas prices in Europe to $420 per 1,000 cubic meters. Experts say this is due to rapid depletion of underground gas storage facilities in November and December, shortages of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, and uncertainties surrounding the timeline for certain US LNG projects.
Mr. Belogoryev also noted that sanctions against Russian LNG in the EU are unlikely to come into effect before 2026.
Experts point out that while concerns about the disruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine could put additional pressure on gas prices, it will not be the main factor determining prices. Finam predicts that the short-term increase in gas prices due to Ukraine turning off the Russian gas valve will only be up to 10%.
"This is not a pan-European problem, but a local crisis affecting Austria and Slovakia. The northwestern European market, which plays a dominant role in price formation in Europe, is only indirectly and weakly affected by gas transit through Ukraine," Belogoryev noted.
However, gas prices in Europe in 2025 could rise further in the event of a colder and calmer second half of winter, warned Alexey Grivach, deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund. "The price crisis in the gas market continues, especially in Europe. Prices are still 2-3 times higher than the average of the past decade. This has been going on for almost 4 years since the summer of 2021," he stressed.
Regarding the trend and forecast of regional gas prices in 2026-2027, TASS pointed out that in Asia, gas prices will increase in 2025 due to increasing competition with Europe on LNG.
Meanwhile, the US will see the biggest increase in spot gas prices – up 29% year-on-year – due to record low 2024 prices and growing LNG demand but limited production expansion.
By the end of 2025, improving the balance of the global LNG market will reverse the price trend in Europe and Asia, leading to a sharp decline in 2026-2027, followed by a gradual recovery in 2028-2029, Belogoryev explained.
"Although the price reduction in 2026-2027 will be significant, it will not be as much as in 2019-2020. In 2027, gas prices are expected to bottom out at $320 per 1,000 cubic meters," he said.
