Gas prices are expected to increase in all major global markets in 2025, then decrease in 2026 and 2027, experts surveyed by TASS predicted.
"In 2025, spot prices will increase in almost all major markets, with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the year due to low base levels since the beginning of 2024 when prices drop sharply in late winter and early spring," said Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance. He forecasts that in 2025, the average gas price will increase by 10% compared to the same period last year, while the JKM Asia index will increase by 13%.
Analyst Sergey Kaufman of Finam Company predicts that the average gas price in Europe will increase moderately to 420 USD/1,000 m3. Experts say this is due to rapid depletion of underground gas storage facilities in November and December, shortages of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and uncertainties around the timeline for implementing certain US LNG projects.
Mr. Belogoryev also noted that sanctions on Russian LNG in the EU are unlikely to take effect before 2026.
Experts point out that although concerns about the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine could put more pressure on gas prices, this will not be the main factor in determining prices. Finam predicts a short-term gas price increase due to Ukraine's shutdown of Russian gas valves will only reach 10%.
"This is not a problem for all of Europe but a local crisis affecting Austria and Slovakia. The northwestern European market plays a dominating role in price formation in Europe, which is only indirectly affected and weakly affected by gas transit through Ukraine," Mr. Belogoryev noted.
However, gas prices in Europe in 2025 could increase further in the case of a colder and calmer second half of the winter, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach warned. "The price crisis in the gas market continues, especially in Europe. Prices are still 2-3 times higher than the average of the previous decade. This has been going on for nearly 4 years since the summer of 2021," he stressed.
Regarding regional gas price trends and forecasts for 2026-2027, TASS pointed out that in Asia, gas prices will increase in 2025 due to increasing competition with Europe for LNG.
Meanwhile, the US will see the strongest increase in spot gas prices - up 29% over the same period last year - due to record low prices in 2024 and increased demand for LNG but limited production expansion.
Expert Belogoryev explained that by the end of 2025, improving the balance of the global LNG market will reverse the price trend in Europe and Asia, leading to a sharp decline in the period of 2026-2027, then gradually recovering in 2028-2029.
"Although the price reduction in the 2026-2027 period will be very significant, it will not be equal to the reduction in the 2019-2020 period. In 2027, gas prices are expected to bottom out at $320,000/1,000 m3" - he said.
