On July 29, according to the latest weather forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the possibility of El Nino phenomenon is very strong in the period from October 2026 to January 2027.
The agency said that current climate models show that El Nino is likely to continue to strengthen in the coming months, with a probability of about 81%. In addition, the possibility of El Nino conditions remaining until the end of the first half of 2027 is estimated at 97%.
According to PAGASA, the tropical Pacific region is currently recording El Nino at a weak to moderate level. However, this phenomenon is forecast to intensify to a strong level in the period from July to September before reaching very strong intensity from October.
El Nino is a phenomenon of unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific regions. In the Philippines, this phenomenon often causes rainfall to decrease compared to the multi-year average, increasing the risk of drought in many localities.
PAGASA also noted that in El Nino conditions, the number of tropical cyclones forming is usually less. However, some systems still have the potential to strengthen into storms or super typhoons when favorable conditions meet.
According to forecasts from the Philippine meteorological agency, by the end of August, some localities may experience mild drought, while many other areas are at risk of facing drought.
The latest forecasts are released in the context that many meteorological agencies in the region are closely monitoring the developments of El Nino because this phenomenon may affect rainfall, water sources and agricultural production activities in many countries in Asia - Pacific.
