The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from August 2026 - January 2027). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in this year's storm season.
75% chance El Nino will reach very strong intensity later this year
Regarding ENSO developments, currently, ENSO is in El Nino state with a sea surface temperature deviation of 1.3 degrees Celsius in the central Pacific region (NINO3.4 region) in the second week of July 2026.
It is forecasted that in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon will remain in El Nino state and continue to tend to strengthen with a probability of reaching intensity from strong to very strong at 90%. Of which about 42% reach strong intensity and 48% reach very strong intensity.
From November 2026-1.2027, the El Nino phenomenon will continue to be maintained with a probability from strong to very strong reaching 95% (with a probability of 20% reaching strong intensity and 75% reaching very strong intensity). In addition, according to the latest updated forecast for the period from October-December 2026, there is a possibility that El Nino has the highest probability of reaching very strong intensity with a probability of up to 81%.
The number of storms is less but there is a potential risk of strong storms
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Regarding the storm season, from August 2026 - January 2027, storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and directly affecting the mainland of Vietnam are at a lower level than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data from August to October in the East Sea, there are 6.8 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall is 2.7 storms.
On average for many years from November this year to January next year, there were 2.8 storms in the East Sea, and 1.1 storms made landfall.
Previously, the meteorological agency forecast that the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea in the entire storm season this year would be about 8 - 11 storms/tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea area and possibly including 3 - 5 storms directly affecting our mainland.
From May 2026 to now, there has been 1 tropical depression and 1 storm in the East Sea area.
In the year of El Nino, there are usually fewer storms in the East Sea area as well as direct impacts on land compared to the average of many years, but the risk of natural disasters related to storms is still very high. It is necessary to be wary of complex trajectories as well as strong storm intensity or more unusual than in previous years.
The meteorological agency noted that seasonal forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans and appropriate response plans, especially reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
