Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced some new macroeconomic forecasts in an interview with the business newspaper Vedomosti on the evening of May 11.
Accordingly, the Russian government lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3% to 0.4% and lowered its growth forecast for 2027 from 2.8% to 1.4%.
This development occurred just weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned senior economic officials to the Kremlin to request finding new measures to support the economy. One of Russia's development goals is to maintain a growth rate higher than the global average of 3.1% forecast by the International Monetary Fund for 2026.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that President Putin is closely following economic issues and Russia can confidently talk about macroeconomic stability despite the volatility of the global market caused by the conflict in the Middle East. He revealed that another meeting with government officials on the Russian economy is scheduled to take place this week.
Thanks to the measures that the government is implementing, we can confidently talk about macroeconomic stability and prospective plans to achieve modest but stable economic growth over the years," Peskov said.
The Russian economy, worth about 3,000 billion USD, affected by the conflict in Ukraine, Western sanctions and high interest rates, fell 0.3% in the first quarter of this year. This is the first quarter that the Russian economy has grown negatively since the beginning of 2023, after Russia increased taxes at the beginning of the year and Russian oil was sold at a sharp drop due to the impact of Western sanctions.
According to new forecasts, investment in Russia will decrease by 1.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the ruble in 2026 is forecast to be nearly 12% stronger than previously estimated. Forecasts of industrial production, real wages and retail sales are also decreasing.
Mr. Novak did not specify the government's specific plan to promote growth, but emphasized that domestic consumption demand will continue to be the main driving force.
Mr. Novak said that the Russian Ministry of Economy expects the oil price used to calculate budget revenue to remain at 59 USD/barrel in 2026. This price is equivalent to the "ceiling price" used to determine which part of oil revenue will be transferred to the National Treasure Reserve.
Oil prices are forecast to remain around 50 USD/barrel in the next 3 years, although many analysts believe that Russia may be in the group of major beneficiaries if oil prices rise after the Iranian conflict breaks out. Cautious oil price forecasts show that the Russian government wants to avoid the reserve fund being withdrawn too early.
Some analysts believe that the new forecasts are aimed at curbing public spending in the context of the increasing risk of budget loss after the budget deficit reached 2.5% of GDP in the first 4 months of the year, much higher than the target of 1.6% for the whole year.
