Temperatures in an area of the Pacific equatorial region - which is closely monitored to identify El Nino and La Nina phenomena - are currently at 29.4 degrees Celsius, 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than the 30-year average, according to the latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Data suggests this may be the highest temperature difference in June since 1981.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon that can cause heavy rain, flooding in some areas of the world, and also lead to severe drought in other places.
Scientists determined El Nino based on temperature differences in the Pacific Ocean, most commonly in the area called Nino 3.4.
NOAA defines a strong El Nino wave as when the temperature is at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average, while a very strong El Nino, or super El Nino, occurs when the difference reaches 2 degrees Celsius or higher.
Data shows that the temperature is at an extremely high level" - Mr. Benjamin Horton - Professor of Earth Science, Hong Kong City University (China), commented when referring to the Nino 3.4 region.
What worries scientists even more, according to Mr. Horton, is the rapid temperature increase in the equatorial Pacific region. At the beginning of this year, the sea temperature here was lower than normal, but has now increased to an unusually hot level.
Scientists have recorded temperatures like this before, but have never witnessed such rapid and rapid increases when the world just escaped La Nina," Mr. Horton noted.
Currently, the US Climate Prediction Center, a unit under NOAA, forecasts that there is a 89% chance that El Nino will reach intensity from strong or higher in December and a 62% chance that this phenomenon will develop into a super El Nino wave at that time.
Although strong El Nino increases the risk of extreme weather events, this link is not always certain. Another important factor is how long the El Nino phenomenon will last. Current forecasts cannot give a clearer assessment beyond the early 2027 period.
Mr. Horton pointed out that a weak and short-term El Nino will not be enough to break global temperature records. A weak but prolonged El Nino could push global temperatures to record levels.
And if a large El Nino wave occurs with intensity from moderate to strong and lasts relatively long, global temperature records will be broken," he said.
According to Mr. Horton, a prolonged El Nino wave can last up to 18 months, but it is also possible that this phenomenon will last up to 24 months.
