The correlation from the group stage to the World Cup glory

Is being at the top of the table really important?

It seems very important. Not counting 1934 and 1938 (taking knock-out from the beginning), there were 16/20 champions at the top of the group in phase 1. The last 10 champions all topped their group. The last team to finish second in the group and win the championship was Italy in 1982. Azzurri that year was not highly rated after the match-fixing scandal that caused key striker Paolo Rossi to be banned from playing for 2 years right before the tournament. They struggled to overcome the first round with 3 draws and were the only champion in history to overcome the group stage without winning a single match.

There are 7 teams that reached the final without being at the top of the group, most recently France in 2006. The teams that slipped through the narrow door this year may have taken inspiration from Argentina in 1990 and Italy in 1994. They played very poorly in the first round, only going further thanks to a lucky draw ticket for the "lucky loser", but in the end still reached the final match.

Winning 3 matches is not necessarily an advantage

Being at the top of the group is one thing, but is it okay not to win all the group stage matches? It's okay. In history, only 3 champions have won 100% in the group stage: Brazil (1970, 2002) and France (1998). Every other champion has stumbled at some point, and losing 1 match is not a disaster. Spain in 2010, Argentina in 2022 lost the opening match to Switzerland and Saudi Arabia before winning the championship.

In fact, winning all 3 group stage matches is quite rare. In the history of the tournament, only 32 teams have done this. Among them, only 4 teams reached the final (5 if including Brazil in 1950). The remaining teams were eliminated, from the first knockout match to the semi-finals.

“Overcoming the group stage early” and “Mental momentum”

Many people often think that winning tickets early is an advantage. Pocket 2 wins, then you can relax or rest in the last match to prepare for the knockout round. But statistics show that there is not much correlation here, when only 5 teams finished the group stage after 2 matches and then won the championship.

What about the "psychological momentum"? Is winning the last match in the group stage important? The reality is yes. 13 champions have won in their third match, including 6/7 of the most recent champions. The only team in the group that has not done that recently is France in 2018 (drawing with Denmark).

Starting lineup

One thing is definitely not important, which is to shape the winning framework from the beginning. The proof is that there is only 1 champion - Brazil in 1970 - keeping 11 players as starters in the opening match to the final. Even then, they still have some experiments in other group stage matches.

Many teams changed formations, many self-defined solutions appeared when the tournament took place, and some breakthrough changes. Geoff Hurst initially did not have a starting spot in the England team in 1966, but key striker Jimmy Greaves was injured, Hurst seized the opportunity to shine.

Brazil's success in 1994 partly came from replacing captain Rai and strengthening the midfield. France in 2018 used Olivier Giroud after starting the group stage with a false number 9 formation. Or in 2022, Julian Alvarez was initially not Argentina's starting choice.

Therefore, the way a team plays in the early stages of the World Cup is very difficult to summarize into a formula, and feelings cannot be measured. Most of what happens in the group stage will ultimately no longer be too important when entering the life-and-death stage.