Domestic coffee prices
Closing a vibrant trading week, the domestic coffee market this morning, January 31, had a slight adjustment to consolidate the new price base. Although agents have adjusted down from 400 - 1,000 VND/kg depending on the locality, the biggest bright spot is that the entire key growing area is still firmly anchored above the psychological milestone of 100,000 VND/kg. The average purchase price throughout the region is still at a high level of 100,800 VND/kg.
Specifically, Dak Nong province (old) continued to show stability when leading the market with a price of 100,900 VND/kg, only slightly adjusted and still approaching the 101,000 VND mark.
In Dak Lak, although there is a wider adjustment range, the price is still maintained at 100,800 VND/kg. Similarly, Gia Lai province traded stably at 100,700 VND/kg.
Even in Lam Dong - where prices are usually the lowest - farmers still sell goods at a round price of 100,000 VND/kg, successfully preserving the price increase achievement of the past week.
World coffee prices
On the international market, the New York Arabica exchange is under even greater pressure due to favorable weather forecasts in Brazil.
At the end of the weekend trading session, Arabica futures for March 2026 adjusted to 332.25 cents/lb. The main reason is the forecast of regular rain in the Minas Gerais region next week, helping to relieve concerns about drought for the next crop.
Meanwhile, the London Robusta exchange shows more persistence. Despite being relatedly affected by the New York exchange, the March 2026 Robusta futures closed at 4,113 USD/ton. The fact that the price is still anchored above the 4,100 USD/ton range shows that demand for this caffeine-rich coffee is still very stable, despite technical profit-taking pressure from speculators.
Market outlook and coffee price forecast
While the world Arabica price touched a 5.5-month low, Vietnamese coffee prices only adjusted slightly and still maintained prices above the resistance level. This is supported by the fact that Brazil's exports are declining (Robusta exports in December decreased by 61%), creating a solid foothold for Vietnamese goods.
The fact that the price still stands firm above 100,000 VND/kg even when there are unfavorable news about Brazil's weather is a test for market sentiment. Entering February, with Robusta supply from Brazil still limited and global consumption demand stable, the price of 100,000 VND/kg is expected to become a new floor price, opening up positive prospects for farmers after the Tet holiday.
