Domestic coffee prices set a new peak
The domestic coffee market this morning (January 28) continued to maintain its heat with green color covering the entire Central Highlands region. The average purchase price increased by another 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday's session, reaching 102,200 VND/kg. This is a very positive price in the context of the approaching Tet holiday.
The focus of today's market belongs to Dak Lak province, recording the strongest increase in the region of 700 VND/kg, bringing the purchasing price to 102,300 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai, coffee prices increased by 500 VND, currently trading at 102,000 VND/kg, firmly consolidating the 3-digit mark. Lam Dong province, although having a modest increase of 200 VND/kg, still maintained a high price base of 101,200 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international market has just experienced a booming trading session (March session, January 27). On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 had a strong gaining session, adding 11.00 cents (equivalent to 3.09%) to close at a 2-week high of 367.25 cents/lb. The London Stock Exchange is also not inferior when Robusta futures for March 2026 increased by 78 USD (1.86%), closing the session at 4,275 USD/ton.
The main reason triggering this strong price increase is that Brazil's Real has risen to the highest level in the past 20 months against the USD. The strengthening of the domestic currency reduces the value earned when converted to Real, thereby discouraging Brazilian farmers from selling goods to the international market.
In addition, fundamental factors are still supporting prices. The Cecafe Association reported that Brazil's coffee exports in December decreased by 18.4%, of which Robusta exports fell sharply by 61% compared to the same period last year. In addition, weather information shows that the Minas Gerais region only received 33.9 mm of rain last week, equivalent to 53% of the historical average, continuing to fuel concerns about next crop output.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is strongly supported by exchange rate factors and concerns about supply from Brazil. The fact that Robusta London price has surpassed the resistance level of 4,200 USD and Arabica New York has re-encroached on the 360 cent mark shows that the short-term upward trend is very solid. However, the upward momentum is also facing some resistance as inventories on the ICE exchange are showing signs of recovery, with Arabica inventories reaching a 2.5 month high and Robusta reaching a 1.75 month high.
However, with Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old) exceeding the 102,300 VND/kg mark, Vietnamese farmers are very excited. In the context of limited supply from Brazil due to exchange rates, Vietnam is holding a great advantage in the export market. It is forecast that domestic coffee prices will continue to maintain a price range above 102,000 VND/kg in the days leading up to Tet.
