Silver price fluctuation 4.5: Still cautious outlook

Domestic silver prices

As of 9:15 am on May 4, the price of 999 silver (1 tael) of DOJI Jewelry Group Joint Stock Company was listed at the threshold of 2,858 - 2,967 million VND/tael (buying - selling); an increase of 13,000 VND/tael on the buying side and an increase of 14,000 VND/tael on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

At the same time, the price of 999 silver bars (1 tael) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group was listed at the threshold of 2.868 - 2.957 million VND/tael (buying - selling); an increase of 13,000 VND/tael on the buying side and an increase of 14,000 VND/tael on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

The price of 999 silver ingots (1kg) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group is listed at 76.479 - 78.853 million VND/kg (buying - selling); an increase of 346,000 VND/kg on the buying side and an increase of 374,000 VND/kg on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

World silver price

On the world market, as of 9:05 am on May 4 (Vietnam time), the world silver price was listed at 75.32 USD/ounce; an increase of 0.14 USD compared to yesterday morning.

Causes and forecasts

Last week, spot silver prices generally faced a lot of pressure from macroeconomic factors, despite recording a remarkable upward momentum in the last session of the week. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged but sent a tougher message than expected, while US bond yields simultaneously rose, weakening the attractiveness of precious metals.

According to precious metals analyst James Hyerczyk of FX Empire, the Fed has strengthened the view of "long-term high interest rates", turning this from forecasts into clear policy orientations.

Expectations for interest rate cuts - which supported gold and silver prices at the beginning of the year - have now been pushed back to the end of 2026 or further. This makes gold lose an important pillar," he said.

James Hyerczyk added that US government bond yields increased sharply last week, with 10-year terms reaching 4.402% and 2-year terms reaching 3.92%. The high interest rate environment makes gold and silver - non-performing assets - less attractive.

Technically, the market is still in a "sell when it increases" state. Although supporting prices are still holding steady, they are not attractive enough to attract new cash flow into the market.

In the short term, silver price movements will continue to depend on two main factors: US bond yields and Fed policy expectations. "A clear cooldown of inflation or a definite signal of interest rate cuts may reverse the trend. However, when both of these factors have not appeared, the market is likely to remain sideways or under downward pressure" - James Hyerczyk said.