Liquidity remains low, while foreign investors continue to be net sellers, and the lack of supportive information makes investors want to stay away from the stock market.
The current benchmark of VN-Index is fluctuating around 1,260 points, without any notable explosion. This is the 8th session that VN-Index has been sideways after the previous strong explosion on December 5, 2024.
The market trend has not yet escaped the Sideway channel, accumulating and seems to be testing investors' patience.
This development can be explained by the fact that this week will see a number of important events such as: meetings to make interest rate decisions of several major central banks (US, UK, Japan), derivatives maturity and the deadline for implementing the portfolio structure of the Vaneck Fund and FTSE on December 20.
Experts from KBSV Securities Company commented that although there is no sign of a sudden increase in selling pressure, the small-amplitude divergence in the adjustment has not been able to trigger the cash flow being observed to catch the bottom, showing that the current price range is temporarily creating hesitation for both sides.
With the above signal, it is not impossible that the index will lose support and fall into a strong distribution state. However, VN-Index still has a chance to regain recovery momentum around the near support zone when the short-term uptrend has not been lost.
Investors are recommended to continue to spread orders, increasing part of the trading position when the index or target stocks fall back to support.
Experts from Asean Securities Company believe that the market will continue to be unpredictable, not excluding the possibility of continuing to decrease slightly during the re-accumulation process before reversing to an upward trend, heading towards the old peak of 1,300 points. The important support level is 1,255 points as this is the confluence of many technical factors.
Investors should have a suitable portfolio management and risk prevention plan, focusing on long-term investment stocks with good fundamentals and positive business prospects.
You should only disburse when the recovery trend is clearly confirmed with good trading volume again and the stock has an attractive valuation.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBankS Research, assessed that in the late 2024 - first half of 2025, liquidity may move sideways on an average and low level.
However, in the second half of 2025, from August, liquidity will increase, triggered by the upgrade when domestic and foreign capital flows increase buying again.
It is forecasted that from now until the end of 2024, with the context of net selling pressure from foreign investors, high exchange rates and the first half of 2025 possibly welcoming Mr. Trump's new tax policy, the VN-Index will fluctuate around the 1,200 - 1,300 point range.
“We predict that the market trough in April - June 2025 will be a condition for medium-term investors to consider disbursing to take profits at the end of the year,” said Mr. Son.
In 2025, Mr. Son believes that the loosening policy will continue to support the market to grow better. The VN-Index is forecast to reach over 1,400 points, fluctuating around 1,350 points, while liquidity is forecast to reach over VND23,000 billion, possibly as high as VND26,000 billion.
Vietnam's stock market valuation is relatively attractive compared to many countries in the region and emerging markets. The current P/E is lower than the 10-year median.
