Knight Frank has just released a report on the Vietnamese real estate market in the first quarter of 2025, according to which the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market in the first 3 months of the year recorded a significant slump when new supply fell to its lowest level in the past 5 years.
However, the selling price still increased by 12% compared to last year. In the first quarter of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City only had 619 new apartments for sale. Along with more than 3,600 products in stock, contributing to the total primary supply of about 4,200 apartments.
The primary supply is mainly recorded in mid-range products at 43% and high-end 46%, while the affordable segment accounts for only 11%. Due to the shortage of new supply, the overall market demand is also recorded at a modest level with about 689 apartments sold. The absorption rate reached 16%, equivalent to the same period last year.
Notably, in the first quarter of 2025, despite limited overall demand, new apartments in famous projects still recorded positive sales with 80% consumed, while inventory only consumed 11%.
Despite low new supply and reserved purchasing power, apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City in the first quarter of 2025 will remain stable at 3,648 USD/m2 (a slight increase of 0.8% quarterly and 12% annually) - the reason is that inventory products and affordable new products help balance the overall market price.
The market research report of DKRA Consulting also shows that in the apartment segment, the number of newly licensed projects is still limited. Most of the supply comes from the project that was approved 5 years ago and is being implemented for sale in stages. The consumption rate was nearly 2,600 units, an increase of 56% over the same period last year.
Ho Chi Minh City and Binh Duong continue to be the two main markets, accounting for more than 93% of the total apartment consumption in the area. However, the cost of raw materials, labor and interest have all increased, making it difficult for selling prices to decrease.
The primary price (price announced by the investor) has increased by 2-5% depending on the project compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, even in some projects the increase is up to 5-10% in the first quarter of 2025, which is considered quite high in the current context.
The hottest point of the real estate market recently is the effect of the wave of land hunting based on infrastructure information, province mergers, causing primary and secondary land prices in the southern provinces to increase again.
The real estate market report of Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding areas (Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Tay Ninh) recently released by DKRA Group shows that in the first 3 months of the year, the primary price (investors sell) and secondary prices (investors buy, sell) of land in the southern provinces recorded an increase after many quarters of decline and stagnation.
The average increase in the primary market is 2-6% and the secondary market is 20-30%. Considering the region, Binh Duong and Ho Chi Minh City are the two markets with the main price of land plot increased most sharply in the past 3 months. The lowest price of Binh Duong land is 12 million VND/m2, the highest is nearly 90 million VND/m2, an average increase of 33% compared to the lowest price recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Similarly, land in Ho Chi Minh City also had the lowest price recorded in the last quarter of 15.3 million VND and the highest was 140 million VND/m2, an average increase of 9.2% compared to the previous quarter. For the remaining markets, Long An recorded a slight increase of about 2-5%, while Ba Ria - Vung Tau and Tay Ninh remained unchanged.
In the secondary market, the wave of price increases has spread to most localities. According to DKRA Group, secondary land prices in Dong Nai, Ho Chi Minh City, and Ba Ria - Vung Tau have increased by an average of 20-30%. In Dong Nai, land in Nhon Trach and Long Thanh districts has increased in price by 25-40%, even more than 50%, and there is a virtual fever phenomenon. In Ba Ria - Vung Tau, land in Phu My, Hac Dich, Chau Duc districts increased by an average of 15-25% compared to the end of 2024. Binh Duong and Long An markets did not experience a fever but also increased by 10-12%.
