Vietnam's real estate market is entering a new stage of development with clear changes in the way cash flow moves and product selection criteria. The market is moving into a screening phase, in which project quality, planning and actual demand will determine the absorption capacity of each segment.
According to Mr. Tran Quang Trung - representative of OneHousing, the real estate market is no longer a "widespread heating up" cycle, but is entering a process of restructuring and strong screening according to project quality and development location.
He believes that the biggest difference today lies in the two locomotives Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. If Ho Chi Minh City has developed early in the direction of product segmentation and closely following the actual needs of each customer group, the Northern market, especially Hanoi, is in the "delay adjustment" phase. Accordingly, only projects that meet legal requirements, planning and investor capacity can stand firm.
Regarding Hanoi's announcement of a 100-year vision plan, according to Mr. Trung, every time the market enters a major planning cycle, a "rest" appears, when investors tend to observe and wait for a clear direction before disbursing.
OneHousing's survey of Northern customers shows that cash flow has not left the market but is in a "waiting for entry point" state. In which, 17% of respondents expect to buy houses in the next 6 months, 41% in 6-12 months, 28% in 1-2 years and only 7% have no demand. Notably, the proportion of customers planning to buy in 6-12 months has increased from 32% to 41%, reflecting that potential demand is accumulating again.
The slowdown in transaction decisions stems from many factors such as reduced landed house liquidity due to the psychology of waiting for planning, interest rates, real estate prices that have increased in the previous period as well as expectations for more suitable products in the new cycle. At the same time, population planning orientations also put the market into a state of "strategic observation".
In the long term, Mr. Trung predicted that Hanoi is forecast to expand its population size from about 9 million people currently to 14-15 million people by 2035 and may reach 20 million people in the future. This means a need to generate an additional 4-5 million people in a decade, leading to a large housing demand, but it will be redistributed between the inner city and the suburbs.
However, according to him, the immediate bottleneck is still liquidity. Primary projects in the center of Hanoi continue to lead transactions, while suburban areas have slower absorption rates. If in 2025, the average absorption rate once exceeded 80%, currently many projects are only about 50%, while the entire market has decreased to about 40%, reflecting the cautious psychology of cash flow.
Assessing market prospects, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that the last 6 months of 2026 will record many positive changes when supply is forecast to increase sharply thanks to a series of projects being resolved legal obstacles and accelerated implementation progress.
Many localities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Quang Ninh, Da Nang, Dong Nai are becoming "major construction sites" with a series of infrastructure and urban development projects being implemented. In addition, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are also oriented to form growth driving zones to create spillover effects to neighboring areas.
He believes that investment trends are clearly changing as speculative activities and substantive values are gradually being eliminated, giving way to more real and sustainable values. Supply structure will also be more balanced with promoting the development of social housing and policy housing, while investors are forced to improve competitiveness and develop products in many segments at more affordable prices.
