Although the level of interest and transactions in the market is no longer as active as before, the general level of land plot prices has not yet shown a strong downward trend. Experts believe that this segment is entering a strong screening phase as speculative cash flow gradually withdraws and investors shift to prioritizing real-use value.
Data from Batdongsan. com. vn shows that in the first quarter of 2026, both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City recorded a decrease in interest in land plots compared to the end of 2025, in which Ho Chi Minh City (old) decreased by about 5%, while Hanoi decreased more sharply, by about 23%. However, contrary to the decline in demand, the asking price for land plots is still quite stable. In Hanoi alone, the average asking price reached about 81 million VND/m2, almost flat compared to the previous quarter but still higher than the same period in 2025.
Explaining this development, Ms. Do Thi Ngoc Anh - Senior Business Manager of Batdongsan. com. vn - said that cash flow in the market is becoming more cautious and tends to shift to products with real use value, instead of speculative assets such as land plots.
According to Ms. Anh, reality shows that information about planning, infrastructure development or administrative boundaries adjustment can still create short-term "waves" for the land plot segment. However, when unfavorable factors such as interest rate pressure appear, transaction demand often decreases very quickly. This reflects a clear change in investor behavior, if previously the psychology of fear of missing opportunities once dominated strongly, now the trend of preserving capital and waiting for clearer signals from the market is rising.
Not only is transactions slowing down, many experts also believe that 2026 will be the time when the land plot segment enters a strong purification process. Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet - Director of Housing Project Marketing Department of CBRE Vietnam - said that the regulation on real estate identification codes will contribute to making ownership and price levels transparent, thereby limiting two-price transactions and clarifying the actual value of assets.
More notably, land plots are gradually passing through the "era of land subdivision". Regulations prohibiting land subdivision and sale in urban areas of type I, II and III may cause the supply of spontaneous land plots to decrease sharply. DKRA's forecast shows that in the second quarter of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City and southern provinces will only have about 400 new land plot products offered for sale, mainly in Tay Ninh. Meanwhile, the supply of townhouses is expected to increase sharply to more than 2,300 newly opened units.
This trend shows that many businesses are adjusting development strategies, shifting land plot projects to townhouses or villas to improve liquidity. This means that the supply of land plots in the short term will continue to shrink, and this segment will not easily boom again.
Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Deputy General Director of DKRA - said that when the market enters the screening phase, products with usable value and sustainability will be prioritized, gradually replacing purely based on expectations of rapid price increases. This is why land plots continue to face many challenges in the coming time.
Sharing about investment strategy, Mr. Nguyen Anh Que - Chairman of G6 Group advised investors to be cautious and should only choose products with real housing potential, good business, selling prices commensurate with usage value and cash flow capacity. According to him, legal factors, planning and liquidity must be put first in the context that many areas have been pushed prices far beyond their actual value in the past.
The G6 Chairman also recommended not to expect short-term surfing but to identify medium and long-term strategies. Because from 2019 to now, the average land price has increased by about 50%, even higher in some places, so the possibility of a strong increase in the near future will not be easy if there are no strong enough boosts from large projects, new administrative centers, large-scale industrial parks or service and entertainment complexes.
