In the latest news, the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association - said that along with the trend of late marriages and the popular "bride-and-season, lazy to give birth" mentality among young people, especially in large cities, Vietnam is entering a rapid aging population.
According to data from the General Statistics Office (now the Statistics Office), the average age of first marriage has increased from 24.1 years old (in 1999) to 27.2 years old (in 2024). Meanwhile, the birth rate in 2024 has fallen by half compared to 1989, to an all-time low of 1.91 children per woman and has tended to decline more rapidly in the past two years.
Notably, in major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the birth rate is moving towards the "seriously low birth" zone (under 1.3 children/woman) according to the United Nations' classification. And one of the reasons that must be mentioned, as the Vietnam Institute for Real Estate Market Research (VARS IRE) has informed, is due to the constant increase in living costs and especially housing prices, establishing a new price level far exceeding the average income of young people. The trend of "getting married and lazy to give birth" is not only a result of expensive living conditions, but in the long term will gradually become a reversal factor affecting the real estate market.
The Vietnam Institute for Real Estate Market Research and Assessment assessed that the decrease in birth rate leads to a shrinking household size and number of newly formed households, while the population size of working-age and family-making - the main customer group of the real estate market - is also gradually decreasing. This weakens the general housing demand and the demand structure shifts towards prioritizing medium and small-sized products, optimizing costs, instead of large apartments.
When actual demand is narrowed, the absorption rate in the market will decrease significantly, especially in segments that are not in line with new demographic trends. Meanwhile, housing prices remain high and have not been flexibly adjusted, increasing difficulties in consuming large-area apartments with high total value. As a result, inventory is at risk of increasing, capital turnover slows down and liquidity pressure is weighing on investors, forcing the market to consider adjusting product structure, price policies and financial solutions to stimulate demand.
In the context of continuous housing prices far exceeding the financial capacity of the majority of people, while the income - especially of young people - is not keeping up with the price increase, a large part of this generation is gradually giving up the expectation of owning a private house and switching to long-term rental. This situation not only affects the demand for real estate but also negatively affects the decision to get married and have children, increasing the risk of a decrease in the birth rate in the future.
Experience from some countries such as Japan, Korea or Singapore shows that prolonged low birth rate combined with high housing prices has led to a shortage of young labor, a sharp increase in the burden of social security and pressure to maintain economic growth. To avoid falling into a similar spiral, the State needs to have a synchronous policy to control housing prices at a reasonable level, expand the supply of affordable housing, provide financial support for young people to buy a house, and combine measures to encourage marriage and childbirth, ensuring a stable demographic foundation for sustainable development.
VARS IRE believes that it is necessary to continue to strongly promote the development of social housing in large cities with high housing needs. At the same time, develop a social housing model for rent and lease-purchase, in which the State plays a key role in forming and developing this housing fund, to meet the real housing needs of low-income groups and young people who are not yet able to buy a house.
The State needs to continue studying mechanisms to encourage businesses to develop affordable commercial housing, through preferential policies such as simplifying administrative procedures, supporting credit, or adding priority points when participating in bidding for the following projects.
Encourage real estate businesses to convert their business model from build to sell to build to rent, aiming to exploit stable and sustainable cash flow in the long term. This is a model that has been successfully applied by many developed countries. This model can be supported through real estate investment funds (REITs), or public-private partnership models, in which the State plays the role of providing land and infrastructure, while businesses undertake investment and operation through specialized management units.
