Economic foundation, urbanization and the formation of real needs
According to the Vietnam Real Estate Market Assessment Research Institute (VARS IRE), one of the factors often considered the foundation for the sustainable development of the real estate market is real economic growth. Unlike markets heavily dependent on speculative cash flow or short-term credit expansion, Quang Ninh has maintained a relatively high and stable GRDP growth rate for many years.
In the period 2020-2024, the average GRDP growth rate of the province reached over 10%/year, while the population growth rate fluctuated around 0.9-1.3%. The difference between economic growth rate and population growth rate partly reflects the improvement in labor productivity and average income.
According to data from the Statistics Office, by 2025, Quang Ninh's average GRDP per capita will reach over 10,400 USD, a significant increase compared to about 6,700 USD in 2020, making Quang Ninh the highest-income locality in the country. The scale of the economy reached nearly 368,445 billion VND, total budget revenue exceeded 85,000 billion VND - the highest level ever. At the same time, total social investment capital increased by over 12%, showing that the local investment environment continues to maintain a certain attraction.
Besides economic growth, urbanization is a factor that has a significant impact on the housing market. Quang Ninh currently has an urbanization rate of about 76%, which is among the highest in the country. Along with that, the province has recorded a trend of mechanical population growth in recent years, especially in industrial, service and tourism development areas.
Along with that, in the past decade, this locality has invested heavily in synchronous infrastructure systems, including the expressway network connecting Hanoi - Hai Phong - Ha Long - Van Don - Mong Cai, international airports, seaport systems and border gate economic zones.
Although the residential density in some new areas is in the process of filling up, with an economic growth foundation of over 10%/year and the tourism industry welcoming 21 million visitors, the demand for living and accommodation space is always present.
Real estate market and signs of recovery
According to VARS IRE, after a period of silence due to legal difficulties and the decline in market liquidity, Quang Ninh real estate is showing some signs of recovery from 2025.
New supply in the year reached about 5,000 products, mainly apartments and products associated with tourism and resorts. The absorption rate maintained above 70%, while the average apartment price increased by about 8% and land plots increased by about 5% compared to the same period.
According to market observations, current demand tends to focus more on the group of medium and long-term investors from Hanoi and northern provinces, instead of short-term speculative cash flow as in previous periods. However, it should be noted that the recovery process of the real estate market is likely to take place in a selective direction instead of simultaneous growth. Investment efficiency between regions, segments and projects may continue to differentiate significantly.
A noteworthy trend in Quang Ninh is the emergence of large-scale integrated urban models, combining residential, commercial, service, tourism and entertainment functions.
If effectively planned and operated, these models can contribute to forming new residential and service centers, while creating additional housing supply and urban development space.
With an economic foundation maintaining high growth, rapid urbanization and advantages in infrastructure and tourism, Quang Ninh is possessing many favorable conditions to continue attracting real estate capital in the medium and long term.
In the context that the real estate market is entering a new phase with higher requirements for exploitation efficiency and sustainability, the success of each project will depend more on actual needs, operating capacity, infrastructure progress and population attraction.
