Arsenal is leading the Premier League when the season is only 10 rounds left, but the challenges ahead are enormous if they want to end the long-standing championship drought from 2004. The derby match with Chelsea this weekend is therefore pivotal.
Chelsea has not won against Arsenal in their last 8 Premier League encounters (3 draws, 5 losses) - their longest winless streak against the "Gunners" since 1995-2005. The question is whether The Blues can create momentum at the Emirates, or will Arsenal extend their 4-match winning streak at home against their city rivals?
Starting the "mountain climbing" series with a push
Both teams are entering a harsh schedule period. Arsenal is not allowed to stumble when Manchester City is still closely following behind. Chelsea is fighting for a Champions League spot.
According to Opta's strength index, Chelsea has a streak of 5 toughest matches in the league, with an average of 95.7 - including 3 top teams and two European Cup ticket contenders, Newcastle United and Everton.
Arsenal is also not easier when they visit Brighton, play in the Carabao Cup final against Man City, and then rematch this opponent in the Premier League in mid-April - a match that could decide the championship of the 2025-2026 season.
Meanwhile, Man City has a lighter schedule with 4 out of 5 matches against teams in the bottom half of the table before facing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Arteta and the "specialty" London derby
Coach Mikel Arteta is preparing to enter his 70th London derby in the Premier League, and the previous 69 matches brought impressive achievements: 42 wins, reaching a rate of 60.9% - the highest in league history for coaches with 50 or more derby matches.
Arsenal has only lost 1 of their last 25 London derbies (18 wins, 6 draws). Since the 2022-23 season, they have scored in 42/44 derbies, showing remarkable stability.
Since losing to Chelsea 1-2 in December 2019 - Arteta's second match leading Arsenal - he has only lost 1/15 matches against The Blues in all competitions (10 wins, 4 draws), including two wins in the recent Carabao Cup semi-finals.
Discipline is Chelsea's bottleneck
At this time, Chelsea is paying the price for their lack of discipline. Their 6 red cards in the Premier League this season are 2 more than any other team. In all competitions, they have received nine red cards - double the majority of their opponents.
In the 2023-2024 season, The Blues set a record of 109 yellow cards (105 yellow, 4 red). Last season was 101 cards. The record for red cards in a Premier League season is 9 (QPR 2011-2012, Sunderland 2009-2010), and Chelsea is currently only three cards away from this mark.
The consequence is very clear when they played with one less player in 330 minutes and 37 seconds in the Premier League this season (12.1% of total playing time), only winning 5 points in those matches and dropping 7 points from the lead when they were still 10 men.
In the 1-1 draw in the first leg with Arsenal, Moises Caicedo's red card was a turning point that caused them to lose the advantage. Entering this weekend's match, discipline may be a decisive factor. Against an Arsenal that almost did not make mistakes in the London derby, any moment of Chelsea's lack of concentration could cost a heavy price.
