Overview
What pressure will Arsenal face when hosting Newcastle United, after being overtaken by Manchester City in the Premier League title race?
Pep Guardiola's team has not been at the top since August last year, but their explosive form in April helped them reverse the situation, pushing Arsenal into a chasing position.
Two consecutive defeats - 1-2 against Bournemouth and 1-2 against Man City - caused Mikel Arteta's team to lose the advantage. In which, Erling Haaland's goal was a turning point not only for the match but also for the championship race.
However, the Opta supercomputer still assesses Arsenal as having a 65.5% chance of winning the championship. But form statistics tell a different story.
April is becoming a nightmare for Arsenal. Under Arteta, this is the period when they have the lowest scoring rate, with an average of only 1.48 points/match. Notably, 18% of Arsenal's Premier League defeats under him came from this month.
The current form is also very worrying. Arsenal have lost 4/6 recent matches in all competitions - more than the previous 52 matches combined. If they continue to lose to Newcastle, the "Gunners" will lose 3 consecutive matches in the Premier League for the first time since April 2022 - a scenario that could completely happen.
This decline partly comes from the absence of Bukayo Saka. When he is in the squad, Arsenal wins 73% of matches and averages 2.36 points/match. But without Saka, this number drops sharply to 45% and 1.64 points/match.
On the other side, Newcastle is also not in good form. Eddie Howe's team has lost 3 consecutive matches and only won 3/11 recent matches in the Premier League.
However, this is still a potentially dangerous opponent. Striker Will Osula has scored in 5 matches for Newcastle this season, even though the team lost 3 of them.
In terms of force, Arsenal continues to be missing Saka, along with Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber. The good news is that Martin Odegaard has returned, while Mikel Merino is recovering.
On Newcastle's side, Anthony Gordon may reappear, but Tino Livramento, Fabian Schar are injured, and Joelinton is suspended.
In a context where both teams are unstable, the match at the Emirates could become a turning point. For Arsenal, this is not just 3 points, but also a test of bravery in the championship race.
Head-to-head record
Arsenal had to wait until the last minutes to win 2-1 in the first leg at Newcastle United's stadium at the end of September.
Mikel Merino's equalizer in the 84th minute opened the way for Gabriel Magalhaes to seal the victory in the sixth minute of injury time at St. James' Park.
That result helps Arsenal stand before the opportunity to complete a double victory against Newcastle in the Premier League for the first time since the 2020-2021 season. This is completely feasible if you look at the head-to-head record at the Emirates.
Newcastle have not won in the last 13 away games against Arsenal in the Premier League (1 draw, 12 losses). They have only scored a meager 1 goal in the last 9 trips here - a number that shows a clear inferiority.
In addition, Arsenal only needs one more goal to reach the 100-goal mark in the Premier League against Newcastle. If they can do that, they will become the third team in the history of the league to score 100 or more goals against 5 different opponents, after Manchester United and Liverpool.
In the context that the championship race is entering a decisive stage, these statistics may become an important spiritual support for Arteta's team.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle
The match between Arsenal and Newcastle takes place at 11:30 PM on April 25 (Vietnam time).
