Overview
Arsenal may have faced many difficulties in recent weeks, but when entering May, the hope of winning a Premier League and UEFA Champions League double is still intact.
The 1-0 victory over Newcastle United at the Emirates last weekend showed signs of fatigue in Arsenal players' fitness. However, they are not allowed to show that when entering the first leg semi-final against Atletico Madrid.
In the opposite direction, Atletico Madrid is also too familiar with the European pain under Diego Simeone, when they were twice defeated in the final against Real Madrid and once stopped in the semi-finals.
In fact, these are the two teams that have played the most matches in the Champions League but have never been crowned champions. Arsenal has 223 matches, while Atletico has 190 matches.
Arsenal's form in this arena is very impressive as they are only one win away from the club's longest unbeaten streak in history. In the last 12 matches, the "Gunners" have won 10 and drawn 2.
Their peak form once lasted 13 matches from 2005 to 2006 - the season Arsenal reached the final. After overcoming Sporting CP with a total score of 1-0 in the round of 16, a similar tense journey is waiting ahead.
Notably, Arsenal's knockout matches this season tend to lack goals. 4 matches have only a total of 5 goals (4 goals scored, 1 conceded), averaging 1.25 goals/match. Meanwhile, Atletico once created only 0.32 xG from live balls at the Emirates in the group stage - their lowest this season.
However, Atletico's journey in the knockout round is completely opposite. After overcoming Club Brugge, Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona, their matches witnessed 28 goals after 6 matches - an average of 4.7 goals/match.
In which, Julian Alvarez is a prominent factor with 9 goals - a record for an Atletico player in a Champions League season. Not only scoring goals, he also leads the tournament in the number of high-intensity pressures (853 times), as well as an average of every 90 minutes (70 times, minimum 500 minutes).
Alvarez is likely to pair with Antoine Griezmann - who is craving titles before leaving the club at the end of the season. The French striker has contributed to 24.2% of Atletico's goals in the Champions League (40 goals, 16 assists), the highest rate in history for a club to score over 100 goals - surpassing Lionel Messi at Barcelona.
However, Atletico's attack will face Arsenal's extremely solid defense system. The "Gunners" have only conceded 11 goals (0.5 goals/game) and kept a clean sheet in 59% of matches when David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes were both starting.
Arteta's biggest problem at this time lies in the instability of the attack. However, the return of Bukayo Saka may be the key to changing the situation.
Statistics show that Arsenal averages 2.6 goals and creates 2.3 xG per game when Saka takes the field, compared to only 1.5 goals and 1.8 xG when he is absent. Notably, Saka has more successful dribbles (3 times) than the total of Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke and Leandro Trossard combined.
Saka's return is expected to "rescue" Viktor Gyokeres - who is disappointing when he has not scored any goals in the knockout round this season and has only launched 6 shots, 28 fewer than other players since the round of 16.
Head-to-head record
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid have faced each other once this season, when the English representative won a 4-0 victory at home in the group stage in October. This is also Atletico's heaviest defeat in the league this season, in the context that they have only had a total of 5 defeats with a gap of 4 goals or more in Champions League history.
Previously, the two teams had only met once in the European arena, in the semi-finals of the 2017-2018 season. At that time, Atletico won 2-1 overall after a 1-1 draw away and won 1-0 at home.
The upcoming confrontation will be the 16th time Spanish and English clubs have faced each other in the C1/Champions League semi-finals. The English representatives are dominating, surpassing 9/15 previous encounters (60%). Of which they have won 4/5 of the most recent matches, except for the clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid in the 2021-2022 season.
However, Atletico Madrid has an extremely impressive home record against English teams in the knockout round. At both Vicente Calderon and Wanda Metropolitano, they have never lost in 6 matches against Premier League representatives (3 wins, 3 draws).
Notably, all 6 of these matches took place against different opponents, including Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur.
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal
The match between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal takes place at 2:00 AM on April 30 (Vietnam time).
