Just 24 days ago, on December 29, 2025, Manchester City's prospects for the 2025-2026 season were still completely different.
The 6-game winning streak in the Premier League helps them maintain pressure on Arsenal, when the gap between the two teams is only 2 points. After the turbulent period at the beginning of the season - losing to Newcastle away from home and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League - Man City seems to be entering a familiar stage. They are gradually creating a destructive winning streak under Pep Guardiola.
For City, not leading the rankings at this time is never a problem. They have accelerated many times in the later stages and always believed that they could do it again. After the decisive goal in the 83rd minute against Nottingham Forest on December 27, that belief was further strengthened before the confrontation with Arsenal.
But football can change in just a few weeks.
3 consecutive draws against Sunderland, Chelsea and Brighton - interspersed with a lackluster performance in the Manchester derby at Old Trafford - have left Man City 7 points behind Arsenal when the season only has 16 rounds left. With their current form, the opportunity to defend the Premier League title is becoming more fragile than ever.
Things got worse when City lost 1-3 to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League. That defeat forced them to wait for the results in the final round if they wanted to win a ticket to the top 8. Although Guardiola fielded the youngest squad in club history in the European arena, the players themselves did not see this as an excuse. The performance was so poor that they decided to refund tickets to fans to follow the team to Norway.
In less than a month, The Citizens have gone from being the number one championship contender to a team that has to compete for a top 4 spot with teams like Aston Villa. In the Champions League, they even face the risk of playing play-offs - something that rarely happens under Guardiola.
The biggest reason lies in the serious injury crisis, especially in the defense. In the context of Ruben Dias, John Stones and Josko Gvardiol being absent, 20-year-old center-back Max Alleyne was forced to play regularly just a few weeks after being called back from Watford. He paired with Abdukodir Khusanov, who recently recovered from an ankle injury in December.
This inexperienced duo has become Man City's second most used central defender pair this season. This is a reality that shows that their squad depth is being seriously tested.
Further, City has not yet escaped the consequences of Rodri's anterior cruciate injury in September 2024. Last season, the absence of the Spanish midfielder contributed to making them empty-handed for the first time since Guardiola took over the club.
Rodri returned in the final stage of the 2024-2025 season and is expected to achieve the best physical condition in the new season. However, reality is completely opposite. Continuous problems in the hamstrings and knees make him no longer maintain his familiar stability.
Statistics show a worrying decline. Man City only won 45.5% of Rodri's starts this season, significantly lower than the rate of 74.1% when he was absent. Although he cannot completely blame this midfielder personally, it is clear that he has never regained his peak form after a serious injury.
At the same time, Erling Haaland also went through his worst period since playing in top European leagues. The Norwegian striker has gone through 8 consecutive matches without scoring from the ball - the longest streak of his career at both Dortmund and Man City.
Too much dependence on Haaland is becoming a serious problem. He contributes up to 42.5% of City's total xG excluding penalties in the Premier League this season - the highest rate in the league. But in the last 8 matches, Haaland only averaged 0.31 xG per 90 minutes, a sharp drop compared to 0.94 xG before the Christmas break.
The declining performance of the surrounding satellites further puts the City in a deadlock. Phil Foden has not scored or assisted in 9 consecutive matches, Jeremy Doku has only contributed one goal in 11 matches, Savinho is faint, and Tijjani Reijnders gradually loses his position in the main squad.
At this point, no one can confirm whether this is just a temporary period of decline or signs that Man City's successful cycle is coming to an end. It is possible that Guardiola has run out of energy after nearly a decade, it is possible that Rodri will never return to the best version, and it is also possible that the defense, although healthy, is still not enough to patch the current holes.
Whatever the reason, Man City needs to quickly find themselves again. Because with the current form, the hope of winning the Premier League is fading after each round.
And if they do not soon create a familiar winning streak, the prospect of Guardiola's machine approaching Arsenal will probably only be a memory.
