Overview
The 40-point mark is often considered a safe line for the relegation race in the Premier League, but in the 2025-2026 season, this number may no longer be guaranteed. When entering the last month, there are up to 4 teams approaching or reaching this point level.
Leeds United has reached the 40-point mark, but the risk of relegation is still present if their form stagnates and the opponents behind continue to break away.
In the group competing for the last relegation spot including Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Tottenham, only Spurs are in worse form when considering the last 5 matches. Leeds won 9 points in this period, ranking sixth in the form standings, only 2 points behind the rising Forest.
Daniel Farke's team entered the weekend match with the goal of accumulating more points to get closer to the relegation ticket. Belief is further strengthened when Leeds is on a 5-match winning streak against opponents in the relegation group, scoring a total of 18 goals and conceding only 3 times.
In the opposite direction, Burnley entered the match in a completely different posture after officially being relegated, closing with a 0-1 defeat to Manchester City.
Scott Parker's team has only won 1 of their last 25 matches - a 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace - when they no longer have a chance to stay in the league. Therefore, Burnley's motivation to play in the away match at Elland Road is a big question mark.
However, Burnley still has a basis for hope as they have twice in history won both legs against Leeds in the same season (1925-1926 and 2013-2014). In addition, they also won 9 out of the last 13 points away from home, showing their ability to surprise.
However, to do that, Burnley needs to end the three consecutive defeats away from home against Everton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest, where they conceded 9 goals and only scored 2.
Personnel situation
Leeds United has a relatively stable force before the weekend match, but Ilia Gruev will be out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. Meanwhile, Gabriel Gudmundsson's ability to play is still uncertain due to hamstring problems.
In attack, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the team's number one scorer with 11 goals, but his recent form is not really impressive when he only scored 1 goal in 8 matches. Notably, his most recent opening goal took place from the win against Nottingham Forest in February.
On the other side, Burnley faces no small difficulties in terms of force. Josh Cullen (knee), Connor Roberts (calf) and Jordan Beyer (muscle) are definitely absent. However, Hannibal Mejbri, Axel Tuanzebe and Zeki Amdouni are all approaching the day of return.
Zian Flemming is also a notable name, when he only needed one more goal to reach the two-digit mark in the Premier League, on par with Chris Wood (season 2020-2021) and Danny Ings (season 2014-2015).
Expected lineup:
Leeds United: Darlow, Rodon, Bijol, Struijk, Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Justin, Aaronson, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin.
Dubravka, Walker, Ekdal, Humphreys, Esteve, Hartman, Tchaouna, Ward-Prowse, Laurent, Anthony, Flemming.
The match between Leeds United and Burnley takes place at 2:00 AM on May 2nd (Vietnam time).
