Overview
Man City is in a big advantage to win a ticket to the 23rd National Cup final at Wembley under Pep Guardiola. They won convincingly 2-0 against Newcastle in the first leg at St James' Park 3 weeks ago, thanks to goals from Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki.
In the last 6 wins in the first leg of the semi-finals, Man City has only failed to reach the Carabao Cup final once. That was the defeat against Manchester United in the 2009-2010 season. This time, they are aiming for their first Carabao Cup title since the 2020-2021 season when only Liverpool (10) is the champion more than City (8).
However, since the first leg, Guardiola's team has shown signs of decline with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in all competitions. Most recently, Man City was held to a 2-2 draw by Tottenham in North London, losing the victory despite leading by 2 goals. This is the first time since April 2018 that Man City has led by 2 goals or more in the first half without winning. At that time they lost to Man United 2-3.
In the Premier League, Man City scored 6 goals in the first half without conceding, but conceded 6 goals in the second half without scoring in the last 6 matches in 2026. The collapse against Tottenham shows that the performance in the second half is becoming an increasing concern for Guardiola, especially when Man City is 6 points behind the leading team and direct competitor Arsenal in the context of only 14 rounds left in the season.
However, The Citizens may welcome back to Etihad, where they have won 14/18 home matches in all competitions this season (2 draws, 2 losses). They also overwhelmed Newcastle in recent receptions when they won all 11 recent home matches with a total score of 37-3, including a 4-0 victory in the Premier League in February 2025.
In the opposite direction, Newcastle started their Carabao Cup title defense campaign with victories against Bradford, Tottenham and Fulham. However, their 10-match winning streak in the league - lasting from the beginning of the 2024-2025 season - was stopped by a home defeat to Man City in the first leg of the semi-finals.
The second goal conceded in the 90+8 minute was a heavy blow to Newcastle, but coach Eddie Howe affirmed that the team is still fighting to become the second team to come back after losing by a margin of 2 goals or more in the first leg to reach the Carabao Cup final. Previously, only Aston Villa had done the same against Tranmere in the 1993-1994 season (losing 1-3 away, winning 3-1 home and then winning in a penalty shootout).
However, the challenge waiting for Newcastle is extremely difficult. "The Magpies" lost 17/18 of their most recent away matches against Man City and only had one victory at the Etihad in the past 22 years. That was the 2-0 victory also at the Carabao Cup in October 2014.
Newcastle's away form this season is also not very impressive when they only won 3/16 matches on their opponent's field in all competitions (5 draws, 8 losses). Most recently, they lost to Liverpool 1-4 in the Premier League despite once leading, falling to 10th place and being 6 points behind the top 5.
However, Newcastle can cling to a bit of confidence as they have defeated Man City in the last two Carabao Cup encounters (2014 and 2023), and also defeated Guardiola's team 2-1 in the Premier League in November. Now, they will aim to defeat Man City twice in the same season - something Newcastle has not done since the 1983-1984 season.
Expected lineup:
Manchester City: Trafford, Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, Ait-Nouri, Rodri, O'Reilly, Cherki, Bernardo, Semenyo, Haaland.
Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall, Willock, Tonali, Ramsey, Barnes, Wissa, Gordon.
The match between Man City and Newcastle takes place at 3:00 AM on February 5th (Vietnam time).
