The 2023-2024 Premier League is witnessing the most unusual and unpredictable situation in the past decade. Unbelievable results such as Tottenham losing to Ipswich Town at home but winning Man City 4-0 away created a big surprise. The lack of consistency is not only happening with Tottenham but also spreading throughout the tournament, making this season more unpredictable and attractive than ever.
By the end of round 15, there were only 39 times when teams won 2 consecutive matches, the lowest number in many recent seasons. Compared to the same period last season, there were 47 times when the teams won 2 consecutive matches and the previous seasons all ranged from 43 to 59 times. Currently, there are 7 teams that have never won consecutively, the most prominent of which is Man United.
Notably, the longest winning streak of this season is only 5 matches, significantly lower than previous seasons, when this number usually reached 6 to 9 matches. Even big teams like Arsenal and Man City cannot maintain stable performance, only winning a maximum of 3 consecutive matches. So what is the cause of this instability?
Firstly, the gap in class between Premier League teams is narrowing. This season's Premier League has fierce competition in the middle of the rankings. Clubs like Nottingham Forest, Brighton or Aston Villa are all capable of defeating the big guys. For example, Nottingham beat Liverpool, Brighton defeated Man City or Bournemouth shocked everyone when defeating Arsenal.
This balance can be explained by the strong financial resources of the teams. Thanks to television copyright revenue and other sources, even small clubs like Bournemouth can spend up to 40 million pounds to buy players from top European teams. Brighton also spent about 200 million pounds last summer to increase their force, larger than many big clubs in the old continent. Mid-range teams that achieved good results also had a great mark from coaches. Many clubs in the Premier League today use an active attacking style of play instead of defensive clusters. Brighton, Bournemouth or even Tottenham are typical examples of an all-out style of play, accepting mistakes to create a breakthrough.
Next, the Premier League is also greatly affected by a tight schedule and a significant increase in injuries. The summer of 2024 will see major events such as EURO, Copa America and the Paris Olympics, which will overload many players without enough rest.
Notably, Brighton have lost 17 players due to injuries since the beginning of the season, Aston Villa and Ipswich Town are not getting better with 15 and 17 injuries respectively. These losses make it difficult for teams to maintain stable performance.
The most typical example of instability is certainly Tottenham. Ange Postecoglou's team had brilliant performances against Man City, Man United and Aston Villa but also easily fell to opponents who were rated lower.
In 2024, Spurs played 34 matches, won 15 and lost 14. At the end of last season, Tottenham had a forgettable streak when they lost 4 consecutive matches in the Premier League. Such an unstable performance has led to many times when captain Ange Postecoglou was questioned about his suitability for the London team.
The widespread instability makes the Top 4 race more intense than ever. Currently, in addition to the top two teams, Liverpool and Chelsea, positions from 3rd to 13th can have many changes after just 1 round. In particular, the top half of the rankings includes many teams that have played in the Championship in the past decade.
This competition makes the Premier League more attractive to neutral audiences. However, for the championship candidates, this becomes a big challenge. Big teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal or Man City will find it difficult to maintain the necessary winning streak to reach 90 points, a number commonly seen in previous champions.
