Is Marcus Rashford really on his way back to his best form at Aston Villa? Or has his return to the England team made a false impression of the striker's form since escaping his suffering at Manchester United in January? This is a £40 million question for Villa to answer in the next two months.
If Villa is convinced, a permanent transfer from Man United with a pre-agreed fee of £40 million will take place this summer. But if there is still doubt, Rashford will be sent back to Old Trafford with the remaining 3 years in a £325,000-a-week contract.
In fact, Rashford has little hope of reviving his career at his childhood club, where coach Ruben Amorim has repeatedly made it clear that this player is not in the future plan.
The 27-year-old is preparing for Villa's 10th FA Cup quarter-final match at Preston North End. And this will be another opportunity for him to show a clear sign of regaining his form. Otherwise, the positive things about Rashford's recent performances are just an excuse.
Few players have divided opinions as much as Rashford. If there are doubters and traders, Amorim and his predecessor at Old Trafford Erik ten Hag are certainly in the "s upset" group. Villa manager Unai Emery and England manager Thomas Tuchel will be in the back four, having both shown confidence in Rashford in recent months.
"Red Devils" supporters will point to his instability or lack of team spirit before moving to Villa Park. Of course, Aston Villa fans will also point to the collaboration between Rashford and teammate Marco Asensio as evidence that Emery is reviving the 27-year-old striker's career.
Is 4 assists in 9 appearances for Villa a positive comeback or just an unimpressive contribution from Rashford? Will his return to England, a year after his final international appearance, prove that Villa were right to bet on a struggling player at Old Trafford?
Rashford's statistics this season, for both Man United and Villa, are not convincing and only allow those who doubt or trust to select evidence to suit their arguments.
According to ESPN Global Sports Research, Rashford has been sprinting for an average of 90 minutes at Man United this season (21.33) more than he did at Villa (17.01). But paradoxically, he has run an average of more meters per 90 minutes (10.745) at Villa than at Old Trafford (10.204).
So will Rashford become more positive under Emery, or Amorim not see the work performance that this player showed at Man United?
Rashford has also been more efficient in front of goal for the "Red Devils" than at Villa, where he has yet to score. In 23 appearances for Man United, Rashford has created an expected goals (xG) of 3.88, with 7 goals in all competitions. At Villa, his xG was 1.59 but he did not score any goals in 9 matches. But, perhaps, thanks to Rashford's effective partnership with Asensio, his expected assists (xA) at Villa (3.26) are higher than at Man United (211).
Tuchel urged Rashford to do "more dribbling and running more aggressively into the box" in his recent return to the national team. However, the 27-year-old did not score or assist in the two matches against Albania and Latvia, and only had an xG of 0.03 and an xA of 1.
Man United will be delighted with Rashford's return to the "Three Lions" shirt. Rashford may be lucky to be trusted by Tuchel, but in Man United's view, it is only a positive thing that helps them increase the transfer value of the 27-year-old player.
However, Rashford's failure to provide convincing evidence is perhaps the clearest sign that he still needs to work harder. Luckily for Rashford this is the time of the season to do that.
Villa are just three games away from their first FA Cup title since 1957 They have also reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League and faced Paris St Germain. Despite criticism, Rashford still has good results in big matches. The way Rashford will perform in the coming time will determine whether he is really on his way back or not.
