Pre-match information
The Uruguay team enters the decisive match against Spain in Guadalajara in the last round of Group H of the 2026 World Cup in a context where there is no turning back.
Marcelo Bielsa's team disappointed when they only drew two matches against Saudi Arabia and newcomer Cabo Verde. The 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia on the opening day was once considered a temporary stumble, but continuing to be held to a 2-2 draw by Cabo Verde put Uruguay in a difficult position.
Uruguay certainly wants to avoid the scenario of a third consecutive draw at the World Cup, something they have only experienced once in history. After being eliminated from the group stage in 2022, La Celeste is also facing the risk of stopping in the group stage for the first time in two consecutive World Cups.
According to Opta, Uruguay's chances of winning a ticket to the round of 32 are currently only 38.2%, while Spain has secured a ticket to the next round and has a 83.7% chance of finishing the group stage in the top spot.
The history of competition in Mexico also does not favor the South American representative. Uruguay has only won one of their last 9 World Cup matches in Mexico (3 draws, 5 losses). The only victory was a 1-0 victory over the Soviet Union after extra time in the 1970 World Cup quarter-finals.
Meanwhile, Spain regained the image of a championship contender with a convincing 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia. Lamine Yamal opened the score, Mikel Oyarzabal scored a double, before Hassan Altambakti scored an own goal to close La Roja's impressive performance.
Luis de la Fuente's team also has a basis for confidence as they have won the last group stage match in every World Cup from 1986 to 2014. Although they have not maintained that achievement in the last two editions (drawing with Morocco in 2018 and losing to Japan in 2022), Spain still possesses an extremely solid defense.
La Roja has kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive World Cup matches and has the opportunity to close the group stage without conceding a goal if they continue this form against Uruguay.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, Spain has kept a clean sheet in 14 out of 29 World Cup matches, reaching a rate of 48% - the highest among teams participating in more than one World Cup in this period.
