The Premier League title race has been decided, but at the bottom of the rankings, the drama is still intact. Tottenham and West Ham - two arch-rivals of London - will enter the final round in a do-or-die situation, when one team is relegated and the other has to play in the Championship next season.
Tottenham is holding a greater advantage thanks to a 2-point gap with West Ham. Just defeating Everton at home, Spurs will definitely stay in the league. Even a draw is almost enough for the North London team to stay in the Premier League, because they have a superior goal difference. Conversely, if Tottenham fails, opportunities will open up for West Ham - who must defeat Leeds United to nurture hopes of escaping danger.
This is an unprecedented situation for Tottenham in the Premier League era. The last time Spurs were relegated was from the 1976-1977 season. Meanwhile, West Ham has been relegated twice since the Premier League was born, most recently in the 2010-2011 season.
History shows that West Ham has not many chances. In 34 Premier League seasons, there have been 24 seasons having to wait until the final round to determine at least one relegation spot. However, only 9 times a team entered the final round in the relegation zone and then successfully escaped danger. Notably, since 2011, that has only happened once - when Leeds stayed in the 2021-2022 season and pushed Burnley down to the Championship.
However, West Ham still has reason to hope if looking at their home form. Coach Nuno Espirito Santo's team has played quite well at London Stadium recently, only losing to Arsenal since January. Before that, they went through a series of many unbeaten matches at home in both the Premier League and FA Cup.
Meanwhile, Tottenham has an alarming home record. Spurs have only won 2 Premier League matches at Tottenham Hotspur this season and have not won any matches here since December last year. Even under coach Roberto De Zerbi, this problem has not been able to be thoroughly improved.
The Spurs" once lost the advantage against Brighton and Leeds in matches that seemed to be guaranteed victory. That made the obsession named "Doctor Tottenham" continue to return.
Tottenham Doctor" is the way fans jokingly call the ability to help opponents end Spurs' poor performance streak. This season, Tottenham has four times become the team to "rescue" clubs that are going through a prolonged winless streak, including Bournemouth, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and West Ham.
Those statistics can create great psychological pressure on Spurs in the decisive match against Everton. Just a moment of distraction, everything can completely collapse.
In the opposite direction, West Ham also does not have an easy task. Leeds United is on an 8-match unbeaten streak and is an extremely difficult opponent in the final stage of the season. Nuno's team will have to do their part before hoping Tottenham will continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
The Premier League closing day is therefore expected to be even more tense than the championship race that ended a few days earlier.
According to Opta's assessment, West Ham has a 85.5% chance of relegation. Conversely, Tottenham's rate is only at 14.5%.
