Thailand has home advantage, but Vietnam is still assessed as capable of bringing favorable results in the first leg of the ASEAN Cup 2026 final.
Before the match at Rajamangala, Thailand was somewhat rated slightly higher than Vietnam thanks to home advantage and ball control ability. However, the gap between the two teams is not too large, especially when Vietnam is having stability in playing after overcoming Malaysia in the semi-finals.
According to the prediction of supercomputer B.S, Thailand has 41.7% chance of winning, while Vietnam has 34.3%. The probability of the two teams sharing points is calculated at 24%. Meanwhile, the expected goal index also shows a negligible difference, Thailand reaches 1.61 (xG) and Vietnam is 1.44 (xG).
Score scenarios are predicted quite closely. If the Vietnamese team wins, 2-1 is the most likely result with 7.9%, followed by 1-0 with 6.8% and 2-0 with 4.9%. In case Thailand wins, 2-1 has the highest probability at 8.8%. The most predicted draw is 1-1 with 11%.
Head-to-head history still leans towards Thailand when Vietnam won 5, drew 8 and lost 18 in 31 encounters. However, the last 6 matches show that the balance has been more balanced, with each team having 2 wins and 2 draws.
Notably, Vietnam won all two legs of the ASEAN Cup 2024 final against Thailand with scores of 2-1 and 3-2.
In this match, the midfield will play an important role when Hoang Duc and Thanh Long must limit losing the ball under the pressure of the home team. If Thailand pushes high, the space behind the defense may open up opportunities for Dinh Bac, Hoang Hen, Tai Loc or Xuan Son.
Xuan Son once scored 2 goals in the ASEAN Cup 2024 final against Thailand, but the opponent will definitely focus a lot on this striker. Therefore, the Vietnamese team needs to maintain balance, prioritize a safe game and wait for the right time to counter-attack.
A draw or victory at Rajamangala will give coach Kim Sang-sik's team a significant advantage before returning to My Dinh to play the second leg.
