The "talking" numbers
Hanoi Employment Service Center noted that in the first quarter of 2026, the e-commerce and logistics service industry groups experienced a recruitment boom, accounting for more than 30% of the total target. In the opposite direction, traditional labor-intensive industries are witnessing a large-scale "cleansing" for workers over 35 years old.
Meanwhile, the Ho Chi Minh City Employment Service Center recorded a strong shift to the green economy and high-end services. Many FDI enterprises are hunting for high-quality personnel in the semiconductor and renewable energy industries, with starting salaries increasing by 20% compared to the same period in 2025.
According to the latest report from the Statistics Office, the general unemployment rate of the whole country in the first quarter of 2026 remained at 2.21%. One of the most painful points in the current labor picture is the fate of middle-aged workers.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, former Director of the Institute of Labor Science and Social Affairs, said that the group of workers aged 35-45 is in a "swirling zone" of double elimination.
When the "green factory" and automation standards become mandatory for businesses to maintain international orders, workers who are slow to adapt to digital skills will be the first subjects to be cut" - Ms. Huong analyzed.
Another paradox that exists in the labor market is the situation of "too many teachers, not enough workers", but it is high-quality workers.
Mr. Vu Quang Thanh - Deputy Director of the Hanoi Employment Service Center informed that survey results from job transaction sessions show that many university graduates are still struggling to find jobs due to lack of practical skills. Businesses now not only need a bachelor who knows theory; they need people who know how to operate AI to optimize work, know how to manage projects flexibly and have complex problem-solving thinking.
3 forecasts for Vietnam's labor market in the period 2026-2030
Mr. Le Quang Trung - former Deputy Director in charge of the Department of Employment forecasts 3 macro scenarios for the future of the Vietnamese labor market in the period 2026-2030.
The rise of the Gig Economy: Freelancers and workers on digital platforms will grow rapidly. This is a "lowering valve" for unemployment but also a major challenge for the social security system when the insurance network has not yet covered this group.
The "reverse migration" wave: Instead of concentrating in large cities, a part of highly skilled labor will shift to remote provinces or suburban areas – where digital infrastructure is developed and living costs are lower. The trend of remote work will still be an inevitable part of the market.
Restructuring vocational education: The education system will shift from long-term training to "neck" training courses, short-term and continuous. The university degree will no longer be a permanent "card", instead requiring "lifelong learning".
To make the labor picture have positive changes, Ms. Lan Huong proposed a group of practical policies aimed at workers. Among them, the most urgent is to build a national job transaction floor based on "life" and "clean" data, connecting interconnected from the Central to local levels to eliminate the situation of local labor surplus and shortage.
Next, unemployment insurance must be reformed in the direction that the Unemployment Insurance Fund should not only be a place to pay allowances, but must become a "Retraining Fund".
Finally, it is necessary to build a high-quality human resource strategy in the direction of focusing on core technology industries.
