The Earth has been experiencing record-breaking global temperatures over the past two years, shattering all scientific predictions about how the climate works. Experts say 2023 and 2024 will be the hottest years on record, but the exact cause behind the phenomenon remains a big question.
According to scientists, the burning of fossil fuels over the past several decades has released large amounts of greenhouse gases such as CO2, which trap heat near the Earth's surface. This warming trend has lasted for decades. However, from mid-2023 to September 2024, global temperatures rose rapidly at an unprecedented rate, pushing humanity into "uncharted territory."
The year 2023 saw an increase in average temperatures that exceeded all previous years. "The warming in 2023 was significantly higher than any other year, and 2024 is on track to be the same," said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Experts say the switch to cleaner shipping fuels from 2020, which has reduced sulphur emissions, may be a contributing factor. Previously, sulphur played a role in creating low-level clouds that reflected sunlight. When this gas is reduced, the Earth absorbs more heat energy.
But natural climate change also has a significant impact. The three-year La Nina event helped cool the planet by pushing heat into the deep oceans. But when El Nino appeared in mid-2023, that heat energy was released back to the surface, causing temperatures to soar.
Even after El Nino peaked in January, global temperatures remained unusually high, with November becoming the second warmest average month on record. “It’s hard to explain at the moment,” said Robert Vautard, a member of the IPCC team.
Scientists are continuing to work to clarify the factors that may have contributed to this warming. Several other hypotheses are being considered, including changes in the solar cycle, volcanic activity, and the ability of natural carbon sinks on Earth such as forests and oceans to store carbon.
“Is this the first sign that the planet is losing its resilience? We cannot rule that out,” warns Johan Rockstrom of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Sonia Seneviratne, a climatologist at ETH Zurich, stressed that the long-term warming trend is not surprising, given that fossil fuels are still being burned at record levels. However, she also said that more time is needed to better understand the unusual effects on the climate system.
