According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, weather forecasts and storm developments are becoming more unpredictable than the average of many years.
Climate models show that ENSO is currently in a weak La Nina state, but is likely to shift to a neutral state in the next 3 months with a probability of 80 - 90%.
Since the summer, this neutral state is forecast to gradually lean towards the hot phase, increasing the possibility of transitioning to El Nino by the end of 2026 - early 2027. This development is assessed to cause extreme weather phenomena across the region to increase in both frequency and intensity.
Forecast from March to July, the activity of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea tends to be close to the multi-year average.
However, from August to December, the number of storms may be lower than the average (the average for many years is about 9.6 storms, of which about 3.8 storms directly affect Vietnam's mainland).
Although the number is not high, the meteorological agency warns of the risk of strong, rapidly intensifying storms, complex trajectories and high risk levels - typical of hot ENSO years.
In the second half of the year, storms tend to have more impact on the Central and Southern regions. However, the North may still be affected in September - October when the weather forecast has many fluctuations.
This is the peak period for domestic tourism, so tourists need to pay special attention when planning to go to coastal destinations or areas frequently affected by storms.
One of the notable points of 2026 is the risk of abnormal heavy rains. During the transitional seasons (March - May and September - October), phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and localized heavy rain may increase both in intensity and frequency.
These fluctuations not only affect the travel experience but also pose potential safety risks, especially in mountainous, coastal and urban areas prone to flooding.
Visitors need to regularly follow weather forecasts and storm forecasts. Limit travel to areas with dangerous weather warnings.
Proactively adjust schedules during the peak rainy and storm season. Prioritize choosing safe destinations.
In the context that the weather in 2026 is forecast to have many extreme factors, tourists should update new information from functional agencies to ensure a safe and flexible travel journey.
