The storm forecast bulletin of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) states that Typhoon Koto (Philippine name: Verbena, Japanese name for Typhoon No. 27, and Typhoon No. 15 in Vietnam) is likely to move west-north and then slowly turn westward due to the impact of high pressure from the Philippines and Southeast Asia.
The international forecast model shows that storm No. 15 is likely to approach the coast of Vietnam in the next 5 days.
Storm No. 15 Koto may strengthen in the next 24 hours, reaching winds of about 130 km/h if conditions are favorable.
However, immediately after that, strong winds from the south (about 45-55 km/h) and cold air from the northeast monsoon will cause the storm to weaken gradually in the next 3 days.
After 3 days, when the wind breaks and the cold air recedes, the storm is likely to increase slightly in intensity as it approaches the East Sea and heads towards the mainland of Vietnam.
The forecast models currently have a fairly good consensus in the first 2 days. From this point, the forecast path of storm No. 15 begins to spread strongly:
The National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) GFS forecast model predicts that the storm could remain almost stationary for 2-4 days.
The global EGRR model is operated and tissue by the UK Met Office. AFUM image from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology leans towards the possibility of the storm turning north sooner.
The European Meteorological Center's ECMWF medium-term forecast model keeps the storm moving west more.
Meanwhile, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) forecasts that the storm will move west-northwest, then west-southwest at a speed of about 10 km/h on November 27.
The next two days, the storm changed direction, moving west, then north-northeast, at a speed of about 5 km/h.
From the next 72 to 120 hours, storm No. 15 will move slowly in the North-Northwest direction, then change direction to the West Northwest, speed 3-5km/h and gradually weaken.
In terms of intensity, some international forecast models believe that storm No. 15 Koto may reach a peak of about 140-165 km/h in the next 24 hours, while the remaining group will maintain 110-130 km/h.
After the 24-hour mark, most forecast storms will weaken within 3 days.
After that time, GFS continued to be an exception, saying that the storm would strengthen rapidly, while other models predicted stability or continued weakness.
In the coming days, the trajectory of storm No. 15 Koto will still have many fluctuations due to different scenarios given by meteorological models. Tourists preparing to go to the Central region or in the coastal area from Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa should closely monitor weather reports, especially in the period from now until the next 5 days when the storm is likely to approach the East Sea.
Activities such as sea trips, coral diving, island tours or traveling by high-speed boat may be limited or suspended depending on the development of storms. Tourists should proactively check announcements from hotels, travel agencies or local authorities, and take precautions against plans to change their schedules when the weather is bad.
Flexible preparation will make the trip safer and more comfortable during the time when the trajectory of the storm is difficult to predict.
