Gold market 2025: Unprecedented fever
In the first 6 months of 2025, world gold prices increased by more than 26%, the strongest increase since 2010. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by about 26.35% and within a year, this figure has reached more than 41% (according to the XAU/USD chart from TradingView). Gold has become a leading safe haven amid global economic uncertainty and expectations of slower-than-expected interest rates in the US.
The domestic gold market witnessed an unprecedented fever. On May 14, 2025, the price of SJC gold bars was listed at up to VND 120.5 million/tael, the highest price in history. Not only that, the situation of long queues, "sold out" and widespread speculative psychology have caused the market to fall into a state of supply-demand disruption.
Notably, the gap between domestic and world gold prices at one point reached nearly 20 million VND/tael. This is a difference that is considered unreasonable, creating a profitable opportunity for a business group, distorting the market and posing great risks to people - those who pour money into gold in the mindset of "fear of missing the price increase wave".
The huge price difference not only creates investment risks but also pushes the market into a state of lack of transparency.
In terms of policy, Decree 24/2012/ND-CP - a gold management tool for more than a decade - is gradually becoming outdated. The monopoly of SJC gold bars, the unconnected international market and the lack of a transparent gold exchange make Vietnam vulnerable to external shocks.
Proposal for comprehensive reform: transparency and sustainability
Faced with the ongoing instability in the gold market, Vietnam needs a comprehensive reform, not only to deal with the current "priced fever" and unreasonable differences, but also to move towards a transparent, stable and sustainable gold market in the long term.
In the short term, what to do in the immediate future is to balance the supply - demand in the market. In order to do so, it is necessary to end the monopoly of gold bars, allowing many businesses to participate under the strict control and regulation of the State Bank. At the same time, using tax and fees to limit the demand for gold speculation. All gold transactions need to be managed by clear invoices and connect to the tax authority data system to increase transparency.
At the same time, the authorities need to step up inspection, examination, and strictly handle acts of smuggling, speculation, and gold price manipulation, especially in the context of the current sensitive market. Amending and updating Decree 24 in a more flexible manner, in line with the new situation, is also considered one of the key tasks that need to be prioritized.
In the medium term, the bigger goal is to gradually build a modern, transparent and internationally integrated gold market. One of the notable proposals is the establishment of a national gold exchange - where products such as gold certificates, account gold or derivatives gold can be traded publicly and with standards. Diversifying financial gold products will help convert gold from held assets to rotated assets, contributing to improving capital efficiency in the economy.
Expanding the ability to import gold at a suitable price range, encouraging domestic refiners and developing domestic supply chains will help proactively increase supply and reduce dependence on external fluctuations. Every reform step needs to be implemented slowly, with strict control, ensuring macroeconomic stability, while still meeting the requirements of transparency, in accordance with international practices and protecting national interests.
Building a modern gold market model, clear role and operational transparency
For the gold market to develop stably and sustainably, it is necessary to build an organizational model with clearly defined roles, ensuring transparency and efficiency in operations. In the proposed model, the State Bank will act as the main management agency, responsible for issuing policies, regulating and supervising all market activities.
Along with the management agency is the Vietnam Gold Market Association - an organization with soft coordination nature, serving as a bridge between businesses, business units and authorities, while contributing to orienting the market in a healthy and transparent direction.
An important highlight in this model is the establishment of the National Gold Exchange. This will be the place to operate gold trading activities according to international standards, publicly and transparently, helping to reduce speculation, price manipulation and gradually turn gold into a real financial asset.
Commercial banks in this model will take on the role of creating a market - that is, providing financial products related to gold, supporting transactions of gold accounts, gold certificates or derivatives. Meanwhile, gold enterprises will be the force that directly participates in the market, conducts transactions according to unified standards, competes equally and strictly complies with legal regulations.
Resolutely act - No delay
The Vietnamese gold market is at an important crossroads. If we continue to maintain monopoly mechanisms and outdated policies, the market will become increasingly distorted, easily manipulated and people will be the ones to suffer the most, when having to buy gold at unreasonably high prices compared to the world.
On the contrary, if Vietnam is brave to comprehensively reform in a transparent, methodical and clear roadmap, it can not only control the stability of the gold market, but can also form a healthy, sustainable financial ecosystem revolving around gold assets - in line with global trends and safe for the economy.
