The VN-Index of the stock market was under pressure to take profits right after the historic peak near 1,560 points. This adjustment reflects two factors that have been accumulated before: the need to realize profits after a strong increase and the proactive move to reduce margin use from investors in the context of technical adjustment risks and short-term macro risks.
The net selling of foreign investors also contributed to the decline, in the context of a stronger USD, causing exchange rate pressure and increasing cautious sentiment in the whole market.
In the last session of the week, the VN-Index fell below the 1,500-point threshold along with the matched order also falling below the 20-session average, showing hesitation in both buying and selling directions. The positive point is that profit-taking cash flow in the recent hot-up group has not negatively affected the general sentiment, instead, some Blue chip stocks after adjusting to medium-term support have begun to show signs of balance again.
Current macro factors such as domestic economic growth and credit are still playing a psychological support role for investors, especially for medium and long-term investors. In terms of businesses, most companies have released financial reports for the second quarter of 2025, this is the time for investors to update information and select investment opportunities for the second half of the year. Therefore, this period will witness restructuring spans from cash flow.
Regarding short-term pressure next week, the exchange rate story may continue to be mentioned, especially in the context of the DXY index showing signs of bottoming out and recovering. This could be the only pressure from the international market, as tariff issues have eased temporarily after the US announced the rate of tariffs to be applied from August 1.
The factor to focus on is the pressure on margin at the present time, especially room margin for stocks that have increased strongly in the past such as the securities group or the blue chip group. At the same time, the current interbank interest rate trend, although interbank interest rates have cooled down after the State Bank net pumped on OMO.
August could be the information period after the company announces its second quarter business results. However, market assessment and stock selection still need to be screened based on information from the semi-annual summary picture. This is important data for investors to be able to update, forecast business results and growth prospects at the end of the year.
On the other hand, new US tariffs that have also been officially applied will begin to directly affect businesses. Therefore, the market will differentiate strongly, needing a break after a period of unexpected price increases since the bottom of April was established.
In addition, the net selling movement of foreign investors will also be an indicator to be concerned about when exchange rate pressure continues to increase, along with that if the net selling trend continues in the coming time, the short-term trend may face difficulties.
Entering the new week, forecasts are looking towards the possibility of the VN-Index continuing to struggle in the 1,450 - 1,550 point range. Investors are still cautious, needing more time to assess the impact of external factors, especially the increasing net selling trend of foreign investors in recent sessions.
On the positive side, domestic macro information plays a supporting role, but the current demand is not strong enough to establish a clear trend. Technically, the VN-Index is re-evaluating the support zone of 1,490 - 1,495 points. If this zone is maintained, the index can recover to the 1,510 point zone. Conversely, if cash flow weakens, the index can be adjusted to the 1,450 - 1,470 point range.
Investors are recommended to maintain a flexible trading strategy, limit the use of high margin, prioritize stocks with positive business results or attracting short-term cash flow.
