VN-Index had its first week of decline after 5 consecutive weeks of increases before. The decrease range is not large and the weekly matched order volume also decreased compared to the previous 2 weeks, showing that the previous upward trend showed signs of slowing down, but not enough to confirm the downward reversal trend.
Industry groups that used to play a leading role in the previous period such as banking, securities, steel... mainly went sideways or slightly adjusted, thereby giving "scenes" to smaller-scale industry groups to show.
Foreign investors continued to have a week of strong net selling, mainly focusing on large-cap stocks such as VCB, VHM, GMD, VRE, VNM, SSI, SHB... The large net selling of foreign investors after a few rare weeks of net buying in recent times clearly shows short-term trading sentiment, instead of relying on long-term expectations for the growth prospects of the Vietnamese stock market.
However, in the context that the ownership ratio of foreign investors is at a low level for many years, it is highly likely that foreign investors will trade more balancedly in 2026, instead of maintaining a strong net selling state continuously like three years ago.
According to the general assessment of experts, the correction in the past week has not changed the short-term upward trend of the market. Current fluctuations are considered necessary after a strong upward period, helping the market consolidate the price level and absorb short-term profit-taking supply.
Regarding the scenario for the new week, the analysis group of DSC Securities Company believes that the market may start to show larger fluctuations in the short term, especially in 1-2 sessions. This is a rather sensitive period as the Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, causing cash flow to tend to be more "urgent" in buying and selling decisions. This is likely to create a large fluctuation range in the session, requiring investors to pay special attention to risk management.
This week, the market will closely monitor the socio-economic data for January announced by the Statistics Office, along with the deadline for announcing the 2025 financial statements, which is expected to continue to create differentiation between stock groups.
In a positive scenario, VN-Index may surpass the historical peak of 1,920 points and aim for higher milestones, such as the 1,950 point zone, with the return of bluechip stocks.
Kafi Securities Company assesses that in the short term, the market is expected to continue to struggle - accumulate below the resistance zone of 1,900 points. Profit-taking pressure is still present, partly due to the portfolio restructuring activities of funds at the end of January. However, the market breadth in general still maintains stability thanks to alternating ups and downs between industry groups. Selling pressure is not large, but cautious sentiment makes the index prone to technical fluctuations.
Regarding points, VN-Index still has the opportunity to re-test the 1,900 point mark when selling pressure in the pillar group and banks shows signs of weakening around support zones. However, buying force in general is still cautious, while the risk of technical correction in industry groups that have increased rapidly still exists. Accordingly, the index may continue to adjust with the expectation that the amplitude is not too deep.
In the context that the market is entering a strong differentiation phase and technical correction risks are still present, the 1,850-1,860 point range is considered an important support level for VN-Index when this is the short-term accumulation price base of the index before, and also the convergence area of short-term moving average lines.
In this period, short-term investors should prioritize portfolio risk management. Positions that are profitable and still maintain positive technical signals can continue to be held, while gradually raising the stop-loss threshold to preserve achievements.
Regarding new disbursement, investors are recommended to wait for adjustments to the above support level, focusing on businesses with healthy business foundations, profit growth prospects in 2026 and the valuation level is still at a reasonable level.
