Ending the trading week from January 19 to 23, the VN-Index decreased by 8.34 points (-0.44%), to 1,870.79 points. Total matched order volume on the HOSE floor reached 4.25 billion shares, down more than 30% compared to the previous week. Average trading value reached 35,054 billion VND/session, down more than 15% compared to the previous week.
Regarding transactions of foreign investors, after 2 consecutive weeks of strongly accumulating large VCB stocks, foreign investors turned to sell more than a trillion VND of this code last week, and at the same time had a week of net selling of more than 3,100 billion VND, nearly one and a half times higher than the previous week.
It can be seen that after a period of strong increase, the VN-Index is at risk of creating a short-term peak in the 1,900-1,920 point zone and under pressure to retest the peak price zone in 2025 after surpassing it. However, experts still have an optimistic view of the stock market situation in the medium and long term.
According to experts from ACBS Securities Company, after the consolidation and accumulation period, VN-Index may return to trading sessions with high liquidity as in 2025. Average liquidity in 2026 is forecast to increase by 20% compared to 2025. This liquidity level is contributed by both foreign and domestic investors.
ACBS forecasts that the base scenario VN-Index will reach the highest score level of about 1,850 and the positive scenario is 2,000 points. In both scenarios, cash flow will disperse away from Vingroup's stocks and share more evenly with other industry groups that have more reasonable valuations (banking, retail, manufacturing, public investment...), especially the banking industry group (forecast credit growth will still reach about 16 - 17% and profit growth of 17%, while P/E valuation is below 10 times).
ACBS assesses that the growth momentum of the stock market in 2026 will come from many factors. First, valuation (excluding Vingroup group) is actually very attractive, cheap compared to the region, while the profit growth momentum is forecast to still reach about 14 - 15% in 2026.
Second, macroeconomic policies are still controlled. Although interest rates may increase by about 1% compared to the average in 2025, they are still at an acceptable level for the economy.
Third, GDP growth is driven by double-digit credit growth and strong public investment. According to ACBS's forecast, GDP in 2026 is likely to reach 8.5%. The 10% plan will be possible in the event of drastic public investment disbursement.
Finally, upgrading the stock market to Emerging Markets according to FTSE's ranking will be completed along with improvements in many other areas of trading infrastructure (CCP, intraday trading, short selling...), thereby attracting more attention from foreign investors.
ACBS also forecasts that the average liquidity in 2026 of VN-Index is higher than 2025 by 20%. This liquidity level is contributed by both foreign and domestic investors. Capital flows from foreign investors will increase more strongly from the second half of 2026.
After being upgraded to a secondary emerging market by FTSE, the Vietnamese market may attract 2 capital flows. The first is capital flows from passive investment funds, estimated from 600 million to 1.5 billion USD. The effective date for the Vietnamese stock market to be officially included in ETFs is September 2026.
Regarding the investment strategy for 2026, ACBS analysts believe that investors need to choose a portfolio focused on stocks with attractive valuations and stable profit growth in 2026. The banking, retail, and public investment sectors (construction materials, infrastructure) are still meeting this criterion well.
The proportion of this group in the investor's portfolio should be equal to or higher than the actual proportion on the VN-Index. At the same time, priority should be given to allocating a part to stocks with a high cash ratio, low debt ratio, in the context of rising interest rates. Stocks belonging to the oil and gas, plastic, fertilizer and chemical industry groups well meet this criterion.
