Stocks have strong growth prospects

Gia Miêu |

With the growth prospects of the economy and the growth of listed enterprises, stocks can reach the 1,420 - 1,450 point mark.

Despite the positive economic data just released, along with many positive dynamics and expectations for 2025, the stock market shows a clear deviation from the real economy.

Contrary to expectations, the stock market in the first days of 2025 has performed "backwards". As of January 17, 2025, the VN-Index decreased by 1.4%, accompanied by a sharp decrease in liquidity and foreign investors continuing to net sell more than 6,600 billion VND. The average daily trading value only reached 11,230 billion VND, down 39.6% compared to the average in 2024 and down 32.6% compared to the average in January 2024.

There are many factors that are causing investors to pause their investment decisions in early 2025. One of the biggest concerns is the economic policies of the new US President Donald Trump. Mr. Trump's policies have not yet been fully announced, causing investors to temporarily "sit still" and wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions. In particular, the issue of fluctuations in the US dollar/VND exchange rate is causing investors to consider more carefully in allocating capital, due to potential risks from the devaluation of the domestic currency.

However, in the medium and long term, experts expect the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 to continue to maintain its growth momentum thanks to positive signals from both the macro economy and changes in financial policy.

One of the most important factors is the upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market. The Ministry of Finance has issued Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, removing the requirement for foreign investors to deposit funds before trading, helping to increase the attractiveness of the market. According to published information, FTSE is sending positive signals about the upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market in the rating review period in March 2025, with the official review scheduled for September 2025.

Along with that, the National Assembly's approval of the Law amending and supplementing 7 laws on finance will also create a solid foundation to attract investment capital from around the world, while expanding opportunities for foreign investors to participate in the Vietnamese stock market.

In the above context, analysts from VPS Securities Company have made general objective assessments of the market. Regarding market valuation, as of the end of December 2024, the P/E ratio of the Vietnamese stock market is at an attractive level. Specifically, the P/E is 13.29 and the P/E in 2025 of the VN-Index is 10.9, lower than the average P/E of 5 years at 14.8. Over the past 10 years, the Vietnamese stock market has consistently maintained a P/E ratio above 12.4, and the current P/E can be considered "cheap" compared to previous years.

Some of the key factors supporting the stock market in 2025 include sectors such as: The real estate industry is expected to recover thanks to the recovery of consumer spending and public investment disbursement. In addition, promoting consumer spending and public investment projects will help create growth momentum for the economy, supporting related industries such as construction and materials.

“We believe that the Vietnamese stock market has room for growth in 2025, with an attractive P/E of around 10-12x. Given the current economic situation and market context, the VN-Index could reach 1,420-1,450 points in 2025, as the economy continues to recover and listed companies grow strongly,” said VPS analyst.

Gia Miêu
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