The Vietnamese stock market continued to maintain its recovery momentum in the last trading week of the year, despite low liquidity due to the approaching holiday mood.
The main indices increased on the last trading day of the Year of the Dragon. At the end of the session on January 24, VN-Index increased by 0.43% compared to the previous session, reaching 1,265.05 points; HNX-Index increased by 0.16%, reaching 223.01 points. For the whole week, VN-Index increased by a total of 15.94 points (+1.28%), HNX-Index increased slightly by 0.53 points (+0.24%).
However, not the entire market benefits as cash flows are still quite differentiated. In the context of the picture of Q4/2024 business results of enterprises gradually being completed, this is expected to be the main factor influencing the market's psychology and investment strategy in the first trading weeks of the new year.
The market ended the year of the Dragon with a positive session thanks to the active participation of domestic and foreign demand, in which foreign investors net bought nearly 800 billion VND. Foreign investors significantly reduced their selling pressure with a net selling value of only nearly 168 billion VND on both exchanges last week. Of which, foreign investors net sold nearly 196 billion VND on the HOSE and net bought nearly 28 billion VND on the HNX.
This is a step to gain momentum for the expectation of a breakthrough in the stock market in the period after Lunar New Year.
Analysts from VPS Securities Company said that with a solid foundation and positive support factors from the macro economy, the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 is expected to continue to grow strongly thanks to positive signals from both the macro economy and changes in financial policy.
One of the most important factors is the upgrading of Vietnam's stock market. The Ministry of Finance has issued Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, removing the requirement for foreign investors to deposit funds before trading, helping to increase the attractiveness of the market.
According to published information, FTSE is sending positive signals about upgrading Vietnam's stock market in the rating review period in March 2025, with the official review scheduled for September 2025.
Along with that, the National Assembly's approval of the Law amending and supplementing 7 laws on finance will also create a solid foundation to attract investment capital from around the world, while expanding opportunities for foreign investors to participate in the Vietnamese stock market.
In addition, there are a number of key factors supporting the stock market in 2025, including areas such as: The real estate industry is expected to recover thanks to the recovery of consumer spending and public investment disbursement. In addition, promoting consumer spending and public investment projects will help create growth momentum for the economy, supporting related industries such as construction and materials. Vietnam will continue to benefit from the trend of global trade shifts, especially the shift of supply chains out of China.
Despite many supportive factors, the Vietnamese stock market still faces some potential risks. Among them, rising labor costs could reduce Vietnam’s competitive advantage in attracting FDI inflows. In addition, trade tensions between the US and China could also affect import and export activities, putting pressure on the economy.
In addition, the exchange rate may continue to increase in 2025, especially in the context of the US government's policies continuing to affect the global financial market. However, with the support of FDI capital and stable policies from the State Bank, the exchange rate is forecast to gradually decrease in the second half of the year when economic and policy factors are clarified.
