The market recovered amid skepticism and slight increase in supply pressure, focusing on mid and small-cap stocks. Conversely, in the large-cap stock group, short-term trading positions became more consistent as most continued to have a positive session.
The VN-Index generally fluctuated near the reference level throughout the session, reflecting investors' hesitation at the current time. Besides maintaining low liquidity, foreign investors also significantly reduced transactions and returned to net selling 315 billion VND in the session on July 29.
The market needs more time to accumulate, and the risk of strong adjustment and shaking is not completely eliminated in the short term. However, the cash flow has a certain differentiation, and if supported by liquidity, it will help the market soon have the momentum to move towards the 1,260-1,270 point area.
The bright spot of the general market is that the selling pressure gradually exhausted when the VN-Index fell to the 1,220 point level, which is the confluence of the uptrend line and the 200-day EMA moving average. The liquidity of the declining sessions gradually decreased in both volume and transaction value, signaling that the VN-Index could create a technical recovery rhythm to the 1,250 point price range and possibly further around 1,270 points.
On the other hand, the demand force shows signs of increasing in large-cap stocks with positive Q2/2024 business results such as the banking, technology, and securities groups, which is a positive sign for the recovery potential of the VN-Index.
The banking sector's business activities are facing some pressures, the largest of which is the declining trend of net interest margin (NIM) and low credit growth across the industry. Additionally, the pressure from bad debts still exists, although the State Bank has implemented supportive policy measures. However, in the current Q2 financial reporting season, some banks have announced business results with post-tax profits somewhat exceeding general expectations.
Experts still maintain confidence in the market outlook for the next 2-3 months based on stable macroeconomic conditions both domestically and internationally, the approaching time of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the forecasted continued improvement in corporate profit growth in the last quarters of the year. Technically, if the VN-Index "patches" back to the 1,250 point level, the possibility of a new wave forming will be high.
