Ending the trading week from April 20, the VN-Index increased by 36.12 points, equivalent to +1.98% to 1,853.29 points and recorded the fifth consecutive week of increase.
Liquidity in the week still decreased and was nearly 16% lower than the 20-week average. Accordingly, the average matched order volume on the HOSE exchange was 798 million shares/session, down more than 10% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 23,483 billion VND/session, down more than 6%.
Reduced liquidity, negative market breadth shows that the "green shell, red heart" state still dominates, reflecting the cautious psychology of investors.
Mr. Luong Duy Phuoc, Director of Securities Market Research at Kafi, said that the risk of deep correction in the Vietnamese market is not too high, but the possibility of short-term fluctuations is present. Although the VN-Index has increased quite strongly, this increase has not spread evenly. The main contribution comes from the Vingroup stock group, while many other stocks are still in a state of accumulation, sideways or struggling.
Currently, the market is in the process of absorbing information from Q1 business results and the shareholders' meeting season. Therefore, although the index maintains a positive state, the actual portfolio of many investors may not reflect a corresponding increase. A noteworthy risk lies in the fact that cash flow is excessively concentrated in a group of stocks.
When cash flow flows into the Vingroup group without clear rotation to other industry groups, the market will become more sensitive if this group weakens.
In case the Vingroup group stagnates and groups such as banking, securities, real estate or public investment have not yet caught up, the index may be under short-term adjustment pressure, although many individual stocks are not bad yet.
Entering the first trading week of May, experts believe that the "Sell in May" story is no longer too worrying. Statistics from 2014 to now show that in May 12, there were up to 8 months of May gaining points. This shows that the possibility of May still being a month of gaining points is quite high, and should not be too dependent on the "Sell in May" view.
Financial analyst Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, gave his opinion that this should not be seen as a rigid rule. May is usually the period when the market passes the Q1 business results announcement season and the general meeting of shareholders, causing supporting information to gradually thin out. When there is a lack of new momentum, while the index has increased thanks to some large-cap stocks, short-term profit-taking pressure is normal.
Currently, selling pressure or margin reduction is not as large as in previous periods. If liquidity is maintained well and cash flow spreads to other industry groups, the risk will not be too large.
According to investors' point of view, the risk lies in the fact that when a group of stocks overwhelmingly dominates the index, the VN-Index will not fully reflect the actual health of the market. In fact, many "green shell red core" sessions have appeared, when the index increased but most stocks decreased in price. This means that if the Vingroup group stagnates or is under profit-taking pressure, the index may adjust quickly even if the rest of the market is not too negative.
In addition, the mismatch between the index and the diễn biến of most stocks also affects investor sentiment. The market is increasing but many accounts are still losing money, easily leading to feelings of boredom and decreased confidence, especially for individual investors. This is a psychological factor that cannot be ignored in the current context.
Currently, it is the stage of entering the cycle of announcing business results and the shareholders' meeting season, so the reaction of stocks according to this information will become clearer, thereby helping investors identify how businesses are viewing market prospects.
Investors need to look at the overall picture of the business and re-evaluate stocks in the portfolio, with two main factors being business results and market reaction to business stories raised during the general meeting of shareholders season.
