The stock market has just had a fairly positive recovery week accompanied by a significant improvement in liquidity. However, trading lacked consensus when no stock groups were too prominent, except for some small and medium-sized stocks attracting speculative cash flow.
Ending the trading week from September 14-18, the VN-Index increased by 20.45 points, equivalent to +1.14% to 1,815.66 points. Recovery after a week of sharp decline of nearly 58 points before. Accumulated to the last session of the week, the average matched order volume on the HOSE floor reached 734 million units/session, an increase of nearly 24% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 19,047 billion VND/session, an increase of more than 24%.
Besides the demand of domestic investors participating actively, bank stocks were also heavily disbursed by foreign investors with many codes being net bought hundreds of billions of VND.
From September 21, the upgrade from frontier market to secondary emerging market according to FTSE Russell classification officially takes effect for Vietnam. With Vietnam's expected proportion in FTSE EM indices, the estimated total passive capital flow in the next 12 months is about 1.5 billion USD. Active capital flow is expected to be larger. In the short term, this foreign capital flow can create more momentum for the market and support investor sentiment.
According to Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of Financial Analysis at DG Capital, the positive impact from the upgrade may occur in the early stages. After that, market developments will depend more on internal factors such as liquidity, interest rates, cash flow and corporate profit growth.
Foreign investment capital disbursed in the first week of Vietnam's stock market upgrade may reach about 240 million USD. However, this cash flow may create support for some stocks, which does not mean that the entire market will enter a sustainable price increase cycle.
Therefore, in the short term, the market may be positive in a few sessions, when foreign funds buy in. After the buying is completed, the market will return to normal, without much sudden change," Dr. Phuong predicted.
Inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and business profit prospects are still factors that securities analysts assess as having a wider and more sustainable influence. Meanwhile, cash flow from upgrades is an additional support force, difficult to compensate alone if these conditions become unfavorable. In the long term, upgrades expand access to international institutional investors and improve liquidity depth, but it is necessary to place the scale of each phase in the right context.
Regarding the investment strategy after the upgrade event, analysts from DNSE Securities Company recommend that investors manage the proportion and choose businesses, avoid putting all investment decisions into the upgrade schedule.
First, maintain a leverage level suitable to the ability to withstand fluctuations, especially when the Fed just raised interest rates on September 16 and the tightening cycle shows no signs of ending. At the same time, maintain the necessary cash to avoid being forced to sell when the market adjusts.
Second, prioritize businesses with good business cash flow, healthy balance sheets and reasonable valuation. The valuation level is supporting this approach: Market P/E is around 12 times, if not including the Vingroup group, it is still about 10 times - the lowest level in ten years. For stocks expected to benefit from FTSE, it is necessary to see how much expectation the price has reflected and how large the expected buying volume is compared to the liquidity of that code itself.
Third, it is possible to disburse partially when the price becomes attractive and monitor demand after restructuring sessions. The ability to maintain liquidity and recovery breadth is more meaningful than a strong increase session in a few large stocks. If inflation and interest rates put pressure, it is necessary to be more cautious with large-debt businesses with weak cash flow.
