In this morning's trading session on September 18, the stock market rebounded quite early with the number of gainers dominating the electronic board. The support point for the market came from bluechips and securities company stock groups.
Closing this morning's session, VN-Index increased by 16.90 points, equivalent to +0.03% to 1,839.67 points. Total trading volume reached more than 311.2 million units, worth 7,976.2 billion VND, down nearly 15% in volume but only slightly down in value compared to yesterday's morning session. Block transactions contributed more than 58 million units, worth 1,558 billion VND.
Successfully conquering the 1,840 point mark, but VN-Index could not go further when cash flow stagnated and the market did not see any new enough momentum.
Green color spread in the bluechip group, with SSB being the focus stock with the best increase of +4.5% to 24,500 VND. Followed by TCX, SSI, MSN, VPB and BID with an increase of 2% to nearly 3%. The financial group is also the most traded stock, with SSI, VPB, SHB matched from more than 16 million to more than 17.7 million units.
Meanwhile, the big duo of Vingroup, VIC and VHM, contributed the most to the index with nearly 5 positive points, although these two codes only increased slightly.
From a macro perspective, the analysis group of ACB Securities Company (ACBS) believes that the Fed's decision has not changed the fundamental growth momentum of the Vietnamese economy, which is being supported by manufacturing, FDI and public investment. The negative impact from the Fed's profit increase mainly goes through the capital cost channel, not reflecting the immediate weakening in the business profit outlook.
The level of sensitivity to the Fed's decision will vary depending on leverage ratio, refinancing needs, foreign currency revenue structure and cash flow capacity of each business.This further strengthens the view on stock selection strategies based on the industry and business's own story, instead of expecting a widespread revaluation.
Commenting on the market, HSC Securities Company assessed that cash flow has improved and spread better, showing that active demand is returning.However, the company believes that more confirmation sessions are needed to assess whether the improvement can be sustained or just a technical recovery.
HSC believes that the 1,850 - 1,880 point zone is a strong resistance, which may increase profit-taking pressure and volatility when the index approaches. In the short term, HSC recommends that investors maintain a reasonable stock ratio, prioritize stocks that attract cash flow and have a good upward trend, limit chasing purchases and especially avoid increasing leverage when the market has not confirmed a new trend.
Experts also noted that before the upgrade date, the first disbursement of index simulation funds is expected to take place today.
SSI Research estimates that in this disbursement alone, funds modeled after Vanguard's FTSE Global Equity Index Series are expected to net buy about 240 million USD for 27 Vietnamese stocks.
FTSE also raised its estimated proportion of Vietnam in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index to 0.488% when completing all four implementation phases in September 2027, a significant increase compared to the previous forecast of 0.33%. This is considered the main catalyst for foreign capital flows into the market in the coming time, which can compensate for the cautious sentiment arising from the Fed's policy decisions.
However, the session of September 18th is the last session before the new index basket takes effect, so the restructuring activities of ETF funds may take place strongly, especially in the direction of buying in after selling beforehand.Investors need to pay attention to supply and demand fluctuations, especially in the closing order matching session.
