The tense geopolitical developments after the joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran have raised concerns about the risk of disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East, while increasing the risk of a global economic downturn. This information quickly negatively impacted the psychology of domestic investors.
Analysts believe that the biggest economic impact lies in the risk of disruption of the global energy supply chain. The Strait of Hormuz - a shipping route that transports about 20% of the world's oil supply - has become the focus of attention, as any disruption here could push oil prices, transportation costs and market defense sentiment up sharply.
In that context, investment channels are facing a clear differentiation when cash flow tends to shift to safe-haven assets, while being more cautious with high-risk assets.
Regarding the stock market, experts from VNDirect Securities Company assessed it as not too positive. Historical statistics show that strong sell-offs due to geopolitical tensions are often temporary, instead of starting a prolonged market downward cycle.
In the short term, cash flow tends to withdraw from risky assets such as stocks when investors assess the impact of the event on the economy and business operations.
Therefore, stock indexes may be under adjustment pressure in the short term, but are likely to soon stabilize again if the conflict does not escalate into regional-scale war. Market developments may also be strongly differentiated between benefiting industry groups such as oil and gas, fertilizers, sea transport, rubber and negative impact groups such as aviation or businesses heavily dependent on imports.
From a medium-term perspective, the scenario is highly likely that the US-Iran conflict will not escalate into regional war and cool down after a few weeks. At that time, the impact on the global energy supply chain and the world economy can be controlled, and market sentiment gradually stabilizes again.
Investors can shift their attention to fundamental factors such as the shareholders' meeting season, the company's 2026 business plan, FTSE's market upgrade review results in March 2026 and Vietnam's Q1/2026 macroeconomic data. In this scenario, VN-Index may continue to aim to challenge the 1,900 point resistance zone at the end of Q1 or early Q2/2026.
Conversely, in a less likely scenario, if the conflict escalates into a regional war and pushes oil prices above $100/barrel, the global economy may be negatively affected when growth declines while inflation increases again. At that time, the room for loose monetary policy of global central banks will be narrowed and the stock market is at risk of having to revalue. VN-Index may adjust deeper and accumulate again around the 1,700 point zone.
According to assessments by Mirae Asset Securities Company, the aviation stock group may be the most clearly affected if the conflict lasts. Rising oil prices cause air fuel costs to escalate, while travel demand and consumer sentiment often weaken. This is a factor that can put direct pressure on the profit margin as well as the operating efficiency of airlines.
Not only aviation, the transportation and logistics groups are also classified by Mirae Asset as being affected at an average to high level. Businesses such as VTP, HAH, GMD, SKG, VNS may face pressure from fuel charges, transportation insurance costs as well as the risk of supply chain disruption if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. In a more disadvantageous scenario, when operating costs increase for a long time, the profits of this group may be eroded, especially for businesses sensitive to input fluctuations.
