The tense political developments from the joint attack of the US and Israel on Iran have raised concerns about the risk of disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East and the possibility of triggering a global economic recession. This information quickly negatively impacted domestic investor sentiment as soon as the stock market opened the first trading session of the week 2.
Cash flow then entered actively at the end of the morning session, helping the stock market become more "balanced", the VN-Index at one point recovered to green and closed the morning session slightly down.
However, entering today's afternoon trading session, selling pressure increased again. Towards the end of the session, selling orders were pushed more and more up the board, causing many codes that had just begun to turn green in the morning session to reverse to decrease again.
At the closing time, VN-Index decreased by more than 34 points, equivalent to 1.82%, to 1,846.1 points. The HoSE floor scoreboard recorded 344 decliners (11 floor decliners), 106 gainers (33 ceiling gainers).
The surprising thing is that from pushing the index up in the morning session, VIC suddenly became the code pulling the index to lose the most points with 7.6 points. Next are VHM (6 points), BID (3.8 points), VCB (3.4 points), TCB (2.3), CTG (2.2 points).
In the opposite direction, the oil and gas group contributed the most positively to the index such as: GAS helped the index gain an additional 4.1 points. Next are the codes POW, PVD, PGV, PVT.
Liquidity in today's session strongly broke through with approximately 1.55 billion shares transferred, equivalent to a transaction value of nearly 47.300 billion VND.
Contrary to the panicked move of domestic investors, foreign investors suddenly net bought VND 760 billion on the HoSE exchange. Accordingly, foreign investors strongly net bought HPG, SSI, MWG, PNJ, KDH, VPB... On the contrary, they net sold VCB, POW, CTG, VNM, STB.
Experts assess that the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran is increasing the risk of disruption of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route accounting for about 20% of global oil supplies. Although OPEC+ is said to be considering strongly increasing production after Israel's attack on Tehran, the current tense developments still put significant pressure on the world economy, including Vietnam.
History shows that major military conflicts break out, stock markets often react negatively in the short term due to concerns about rising oil prices, increasing inflationary pressure and widespread geopolitical risks.
However, for the Vietnamese market, the level of direct impact is usually not too large and mainly short-term, except for external shocks that strongly affect capital flows, exchange rates or global economic prospects.
According to historical data statistics from VPBank Securities (VPBankS) on major military conflicts and impacts on the S&P 500 and VN-Index, the Vietnamese market usually only fluctuates for 1-2 sessions and then gradually "shakes off" if the conflict does not spread or last.
Compared to the S&P 500, VN-Index usually reacts less directly due to the main influence of investor sentiment, oil price fluctuations, exchange rates and foreign capital flows rather than direct impacts from the event itself.
Forecasting the scenario of VN-Index in the trading week of March 2-6, VPBankS analysis group believes that the market may open with selling pressure, strong fluctuations (short-term adjustment), especially if oil prices rebound stronger than forecast and conflicts spread widely.
If selling pressure spreads, VN-Index is close to the historical peak around 1,900 - 1,920 points, it is easy to see a fluctuating correction phase to 1,850-1,870 or deeper (1,800 - 1,830).
However, the Vietnamese market is less directly dependent on Iranian oil, reacting mainly through psychology and foreign capital flows. If oil prices soon stabilize thanks to OPEC's response, the VN-Index may accumulate and return to the upward momentum, with opportunities still appearing in some industry groups," VPBankS's report stated.
