After a busy Spring trading week, VN-Index approached the resistance zone of 1,900 points. Cash flow improved significantly in the first three sessions of the week, helping liquidity increase sharply compared to the previous week. Trading volume on HoSE increased by more than 40%, showing that investor sentiment is back positive after the holidays.
Regarding foreign investors' transactions, this group returned to net selling strongly with a total value of about 4,700 billion VND on HoSE, focusing on large-cap stocks such as FPT and VNM. However, selling pressure from foreign investors was not enough to hinder the overall upward momentum when domestic demand remained stable.
VN-Index is currently facing simultaneous short-term profit-taking pressure and new macroeconomic variables. According to Kafi Securities Company's assessment, in the short term, VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,900 ± 20 points, with the possibility of fluctuations appearing as the market continues to test the important resistance zone.
Short-term trading opportunities still exist, but clearer confirmation signals are needed to reduce risks. Investors should maintain a reasonable proportion, limit chasing purchases in strong uptrends and prioritize portfolio restructuring in the direction of selecting stocks that still maintain positive cash flow.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - noted that the market has now approached the old peak, while the macroeconomic context in 2026 has more unpredictable variables compared to 2025. Notably, the general level of interest rates at some banks has increased by about 1-2% depending on the term, changing capital cost expectations and may make market valuation difficult to maintain at a high level like the cheap money period before. In that context, the general valuation of the market is no longer as attractive as before.
This week, noteworthy developments for investors in the global financial market are also the situation in the Middle East, the US-Israel attack on Iran. This development quickly increased caution in international markets, while pushing investors into a state of closely monitoring the spillover effects on commodity prices, capital flows and growth prospects.
In that context, the Vietnamese stock market is also difficult to stand outside the sphere of influence, the differentiation of opportunities between stock groups and may lead to cautious psychology of stock investors in the short term.
It can be clearly seen that developments in the Middle East may directly affect oil and gas prices and the global trade chain, thereby negatively affecting investor sentiment. However, because information has been partly reflected in prices in recent sessions, market fluctuations are likely still under control.
However, some stock groups are likely to react positively to the impact of geopolitical tensions, typically:
First, the Oil and Gas group. Brent oil prices have continuously increased sharply since the beginning of 2026 in the context that the US and Iran have not reached agreements on nuclear weapons. Investors said that the fact that some suppliers are temporarily stopping crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz after armed conflict occurs may affect short-term supply and push oil prices to continue to rise. Most Oil and Gas stocks have a favorable correlation when oil prices rise, notably including GAS, PLX, BSR, PVD, PVS...
Second, the Shipping Group. Escalating tensions in the Middle East along with Iran's retaliation scenario continues, which may lead to a temporary shrinking supply for container shipping ships through this region, thereby promoting the strong recovery of container freight rates (WCI) after the recent adjustment. TVS experts assess that this development may create a positive psychological effect in the short term for the Shipping Group in Vietnam (HAH, VOS... ).
Third, Fertilizer group. Rising crude oil prices may boost product lines using this fossil fuel source in the production value chain such as Fertilizer may expand the upward trend (e.g. urea price). This may be a factor to support Fertilizer stock groups (DCM, DPM... ) in the short term.
