Purchasing power increases, but people are cautious in spending
In the first 7 months of 2026, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reached more than 4.55 million billion VND, an increase of 13.1% compared to the same period (excluding price factors, it increased by 7.5%). Meanwhile, household consumption in the first 6 months of the year increased by 9.48%, investment capital and production expansion increased by 15.2%. Cimigo's survey also shows that consumers are more cautious about large expenses, as income expectations decrease.
However, in reality, not everywhere is slow. The Gioi Di Dong recorded revenue in the first 6 months of the year increasing by nearly 29%, of which the electronics segment increased by 31%. But the company's installment sales revenue also increased by 49%, accounting for about 38% of the electronics segment's revenue.
Talking to reporters, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Lecturer at the University of Economics, expert in public policy and economy - said that consumption accounts for about 60-65% of GDP in terms of value scale. Because the proportion is large, there is a calculation that if GDP wants to increase by 10-12%, consumption must also increase very high, even consumer revenue must increase by 14-15%.
According to Mr. Viet, people only spend more when income increases, jobs are stable or assets increase in price, making them feel better financially. If income has not improved strongly enough, it is very difficult to expect purchasing power to immediately rise just because the economy needs high growth.
Improved investment cash flow, when will it spread to consumption?
While consumption is increasing at a moderate level, investment cash flow is increasing quite rapidly. In the first seven months of the year, realized investment capital from the State budget reached about 445.500 billion VND, an increase of 18.4% compared to the same period. Implemented FDI capital reached 15.2 billion USD, an increase of 11.8%. Total registered FDI capital reached more than 38 billion USD, an increase of 58%. According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, these capitals need time to spread to consumption. Cash flow from an expressway project first flows into contractors, materials, transportation, machinery and wages; then it spreads through jobs, income and consumption. With FDI as well, registered capital needs to go through the steps of building factories, installing equipment, recruiting labor, operating production before having a clearer impact on people's lives.
Consumption is a "low-lying area" that receives the ultimate spread of investment cash flow. When public investment and FDI inject money into the economy, create jobs, and build infrastructure, it takes a period of time, maybe from 6 months to 1 year, for income to increase, and then consumption will increase accordingly," Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet analyzed.
This is also the reason he believes that the investment increase from the beginning of 2026 may have a clearer impact on purchasing power in the last months of the year. But the condition is that investment money must really go into the economy.
Public investment must be implemented effectively and smoothly. With FDI, registered capital must be implemented. When that capital flow creates production, jobs and income, it can spread to consumption," Mr. Viet said.
If the project is delayed, capital has not been disbursed, or FDI is registered but has not been implemented, the impact on people's income will also come later.
Waiting for three engines to accelerate
Besides investment, exports are a fairly strong driving force for growth. In the first seven months of the year, the export turnover of goods reached about 319.5 billion USD, an increase of 21.7% compared to the same period.
According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Vietnam is an economy with great openness. Growth over the years has not only relied on domestic purchasing power but also been linked to exports, foreign investment and public investment. Therefore, in a period where strong acceleration is needed, investment and production can run ahead. When businesses have more orders and projects deployed, workers have more jobs and income, consumption will follow suit. GDP in the first 6 months of 2026 increased by 8.18%, while the target for the whole year is from 10% or more. The rest of the year therefore needs a significantly higher growth rate.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet said that the favorable scenario is that exports continue to maintain momentum, public investment and FDI go into practice, and purchasing power begins to receive the impact of increased jobs and income. "If by the end of the year exports, investment and consumption meet expectations, then this'three-horse' trio can create momentum for the two-digit growth target," Mr. Viet assessed.
Investment cash flow therefore cannot be seen immediately by the amount of goods sold in supermarkets or the revenue of a restaurant. It must go through projects, businesses, jobs and salaries. When people actually have more income, purchasing power has a basis to increase more strongly.
